Integrated mapping and modelling of regional water resources (surface water and groundwater)

Value proposition

Our value proposition lies in leveraging diverse modeling approaches to evaluate measures that support Berlin’s Masterplan Water. By employing both simplified and detailed models, we provide rapid scenario calculations and in-depth assessments of critical factors such as treated wastewater shares, drinking water quality, and the effects of various mitigation strategies on surface water, bank filtration, and groundwater. Our models enable stakeholders to explore future water flow developments, optimize resource use, and identify risks. The results contribute directly to advancing Berlin’s water management strategy, supporting decision-making for targeted measures, such as discharge route planning for treated wastewater. Additionally, we offer enhanced models and visualization tools designed for long-term application by the Senate and BWB. Our modeling outcomes serve as key inputs for interactive stakeholder workshops to ensures effective and sustainable water management solutions.

 

Situation:

Berlin’s water supply is entirely dependent on local resources, with approximately 70% derived from bank filtration and the remainder from groundwater extraction. The system operates as a partially closed water cycle, where treated wastewater effluent is discharged upstream of waterworks, contributing to available water resources. However, this highly managed system is already under pressure due to naturally low river flows, and the increasing frequency of drought periods has further exacerbated water scarcity. Reduced river flows, driven by prolonged dry periods, directly impact drinking water production, limiting the availability of raw water for bank filtration.

Looking ahead, Berlin faces additional challenges. The planned cessation of groundwater discharge from an open-pit coal mine into the Spree River in 2038 will further reduce available flows, intensifying water scarcity. The region’s transitional climate, influenced by its proximity to the Atlantic, leads to significant variations and uncertainties in climate projections. Recent droughts have already demonstrated that the lower-bound estimates of projected flow scenarios are becoming reality. Additionally, Berlin’s growing population and expanding industrial activities are driving higher water demand, further straining the existing system.

To address these challenges, robust modeling approaches are essential to evaluate future water availability and the effectiveness of potential mitigation measures. Scenario-based modeling can help assess the impacts of climate change, population growth, and policy interventions, providing a scientific foundation for sustainable water resource management in Berlin.

Situation

The metropolitan Berlin-Brandenburg region in the north-eastern German lowlands has a relatively high surface area of rivers and lakes, but natural flow is low and precipitation is decreasing.

The city of Berlin and its metropolitan region rely on groundwater as the drinking water production source. Treated wastewater is currently released back into the local freshwaters, resulting in a partially closed water management cycle within the city area. Brandenburg state has a higher reliance on water for agriculture and ecosystems. The rising pressure of climate change is impacting the natural water cycle.

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High temperatures

Record-breaking summertime temperatures have been recorded in the Netherlands in recent years. With global temperatures rising, such extreme weather events will occur more often, and for longer periods. Prolonged high temperatures, with warm nights as well as hot days, can cause heat stress* and related health issues, particularly among city populations.

*Heat stress occurs when the human body cannot get rid of excess heat and can impact wellbeing through conditions such as heat stroke, exhaustion, cramps and rashes.

"We want to enable municipality decision makers who are working on spatial developments to identify heat stress 'hot spots' and cool areas, analyse the future effects of climate change, and model the effect of different heat stress-reducing measures. The tool must provide them with an easy starting point to integrate heat stress risks in their projects."

Issue

Despite the cooling effect of the sea in the region of Zeeland, the growing risk of heat stress has become a concern.

Elderly and other vulnerable people are more impacted by the effects of prolonged heat, which can cause headaches, dizziness, insomnia and other health issues – even death. Excess temperatures also affect general comfort and liveability of cities. Water quality can be reduced, both for drinking and swimming, and infrastructure can be affected. Buildings and concrete surfaces trap heat, potentially leading to damage, and release it during the night, keeping temperatures warm.

During heat waves, it is important that everyone has access to a cool and comfortable place. Appropriate spatial planning can help to decrease and deal with heat stress. Environmental factors like water bodies, trees, and shade have a major impact on stress caused by high temperatures. Therefore, planting trees, removing concrete surfaces, creating green roofs and cool spaces can improve our comfort and health. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is developing a digital tool to support regional decision making for city planning to address these needs.

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Flood risk

By 2050, sea-level within this region is predicted to rise by 15-40 cm, with more frequent extreme weather and more (severe) storms triggered by climate change. These changes will exacerbate the natural risk of flooding in the IMPETUS ‘Atlantic’ region, because it is surrounded by rivers and the sea, and is below sea level.

*Risk takes into account two aspects; the chance that an event will occur and the negative impact of such an event once it occurs. When there is a low chance that an event will occur, but its impacts are huge, the risk is still significant.

“In the Netherlands, an extensive system of dikes protects us against sea and river flooding. We have always put our faith in this defence and focused almost solely on flood prevention. However, pressure on our system will increase with climate change and rising sea levels. To adapt and maintain a safe living environment, we should develop other safety measures, like more robust spatial planning and contingency plans."

Issue

Rotterdam city, is located in Rijnmond – ‘mouth of the Rhine’. The Rhine river flows through this densely populated area and characterises the region. Protections such as sea dikes and storm surge barriers have been constructed to protect the region, but flooding still occurs.

People living in the city are accustomed to seeing smaller floods. The changing climate affects the interplay between rainfall, river levels and sea storms, increasing the flooding risk. Water levels could rise by a few metres, even in populated areas, with potentially massive impacts. 

Mitigation measures such as storm surge barriers reduce the chance that high water reaches the city, but to minimise the impact of floods when they do occur, adaptation strategies are also needed. A city that can adapt to be safe from floods must be carefully designed. How best to design such an adaptive city?

Critical infrastructure, such as hospitals and evacuation routes, must be accessible at all times. Planning how to best protect them, homes and lives is complex. Flood water behaves in a complex way and flood risks show strong spatial variations. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is developing a digital tool to support regional decision making for adaptive city planning. 

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Energy and waste water

To become climate-neutral by 2050, climate mitigation* efforts are crucial in our strategy for how to deal with climate change. Reducing our energy consumption is a significant mitigation step. In the Netherlands, 15% of energy is consumed in the Rijnmond area around the port of Rotterdam, in large part by a major petrochemical industry cluster.

*Climate mitigation encompasses measures such as technologies, processes, or practices that reduce carbon emissions or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.

Issue

The Rotterdam port petrochemical industry cluster is Europe’s largest. It consumes 70% of the Rijnmond region’s energy. A large part of this energy is wasted (64%, 203 petajoules). More than half of that energy is lost with wastewater. In addition, most energy processes within these industries rely on fossil fuels, which has a significant impact on the climate.

Energy use must be minimised and fossil fuels should be replaced by renewable sources if climate change is to be mitigated. Electrification of processes opens up the possibility to use more renewable energy and can greatly impact decarbonisation. Recovering wasted heat would significantly reduce energy consumption and is a first step towards a more circular industry. 

Supporting industries in a transition towards climate-neutrality depends on identifying how best to reduce their carbon footprint without sacrificing production or performance. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is creating a digital tool that supports decision making about pathways towards an effective energy transition for EU industry.