Continental demo site

Berlin-Brandenburg, DE

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Prognosis

Berlin faces increasing drinking water challenges due to rising demand from population growth and more frequent droughts. An expected 40% reduction in summertime natural surface water runoff by 2040 further complicates water management, necessitating strategies to ensure sustainable water supply and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Situation

The metropolitan Berlin-Brandenburg region in the north-eastern German lowlands has a relatively high surface area of rivers and lakes, but natural flow is low and increasing temperatures has led to higher evaporation rates and drought periods resulting in reduced river flows. The city of Berlin and its metropolitan region rely on groundwater as the drinking water production source. Treated wastewater is currently released back into the local freshwaters, resulting in a partially closed water management cycle within the city area. Brandenburg state has a higher reliance on water for agriculture and ecosystems. The rising pressure of climate change is impacting the natural water cycle.

Climate related issues

Water stress

Climate change is expected to cause more frequent drought periods, leading to decreased water availability.

Securing drinking water

Urban consumption of drinking water, industrial and agricultural needs, recreational use, and ecological requirements will compete for limited water resources, creating potential points of contention.

New policies required

The Masterplan Water outlines various measures and strategies to ensure a stable and sustainable water supply.

Key actions

We are supporting decision-making processes by calculating scenarios for water resource challenges and mitigation measures and their effects on surface water, groundwater, and drinking water by:

  • Applying simplified models to evaluate pollution inputs to surface waters used for drinking water production and scenarios of related measures.
  • Identifying the relationship between the ratio of bank filtration and groundwater abstraction rate from drinking water wells with detailed groundwater models.
  • Developing and conducting so-called ‘decision theatres’ with relevant stakeholders to support decisions on measures to address challenges of reduced water availability.

Contact us

Nasrin Haacke

Kompetenzzentrum Wasser Berlin
nasrin.haacke[@]kompetenz-wasser.de

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Relevant sectors:

Municipality

Authorities

Citizens

Water utilities

Industry

Nature conservation associations

Our ambitions

“In the IMPETUS project’s continental demo site, our primary goal is to tackle water scarcity in a city with a semi-closed water cycle. By identifying gaps in the regional water cycle and developing future usage scenarios, we aim to model both surface and groundwater in detail.

Our efforts to simulate water balance scenarios are crucial in reducing uncertainties, supporting strategies, and conducting vulnerability assessments. Moreover, this project supports the creation of a comprehensive regional strategy for water management and climate adaptation, developed by local authorities, to position the region as a national model for effective water strategies and best practices.”

Nasrin Haacke, Kompetenzzentrum Wasser Berlin

The following ambitions have been set:
  •  Simulate and map the regional water cycle and water balance (quantitative and qualitative).
  •  Assess cross-sectoral, regional vulnerability of critical conditions in the local water cycle.
  •  Define and assess scenarios for the development of water resources under future challenges and potential mitigation measures.
  •  Assess the effect of reduced groundwater recharge rates with detailed groundwater models.
  • Preparation and realization of several Decision Theatres as novel approach for stakeholder engagement that supports decision making, incorporating results of modelled scenarios.
  •  Discuss and agree on measures to be included in Decision Theatres with most relevant stakeholders.
Nasrin Haacke quote card
Daniel Wicke quote card

Issues

Region-specific solutions

Integrated mapping and regional watershed modelling

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The evaluation of future scenarios such as low flow periods in surface waters, reduced natural groundwater recharge or different discharge routes for treated wastewater, and their effects on water resources is crucial for authorities and water utilities in order to secure drinking water production and a sustainable management of urban water resources.

For this, different modelling approaches are applied in IMPETUS to assess regional water flows, critical shares of treated wastewater and surface water groundwater interactions relevant for drinking water resources. These efforts support decision making including prioritization of measures for the local water management plan “Masterplan Water”.

Our approach:

  • Development and application of simplified models to assess water quality and quantity changes in the semi-closed water cycle of Berlin.
  • Calculation of scenarios for reduced surface water flows and its effects on water ballances and shares of treated wastewater and stormwater runoff.
  • Detailed groundwater and surface water modelling for specific relevant issues in the water cycle (e.g. variability of bankfiltration shares and reverse flows in surface water stretches).
  • Visualization of detailed modelling results in easy understandable map views.

Decision Theatres

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The approach of Decision Theatre (DTh) is an IT-supported discussion with interactive visualization environments enabling results-driven discussions with relevant stakeholders.

Several Decision Theatres will be applied in the Continental demo site in order to exemplarily discuss possible futures of regions threatened by water scarcity and parallel demographic and economic growth (e.g. new industries).

Our approach:

  • Definition of water-related conflicts, threats, and scenarios for the demo site.
  • Analysis of measures envisaged by the Berlin authorities (senate) and possible consequences.
  • Discuss and decide on policy options/adaptation and mitigation measures to be discussed during DThs with stakeholders and experts.
  • Decide on relevant stakeholders to the region (e.g., public authorities, municipalities, farmers, people from the industry, water supply, and households) for DThs.
  • Use an agent-based model for simulating actions and interactions of autonomous agents (stakeholders).
  • Conduct several DThs with selected stakeholders.
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Water stress

The effects of water stress have been increasingly visible in Berlin. Residents and authorities are noticing reduced water levels in lakes and rivers, which are crucial for the city’s water supply.

This reduction impacts everything from drinking water availability to navigability of ships and ecological health. Summer months have brought more frequent water usage restrictions and advisories, particularly during heatwaves, as the demand for water spikes. Furthermore, agriculture of surrounding areas (Brandenburg) is feeling the strain, with farmers facing irrigation challenges and reduced crop yields due to insufficient water supplies. These signs of water stress underline the urgent need for effective water management strategies in the region.

Infographic showing the Berlin water cycle, water quantity and quality challenges, and regional IMPETUS partners and activities.
Infographic of the Berlin water cycle, water quantity and quality challenges, and regional IMPETUS partners and activities.(© ESCI)

“Addressing the intertwined challenges is essential for the city's future. Berlin must find innovative solutions to manage its water resources efficiently and equitably, ensuring that the city can thrive despite the mounting pressures.”

Nasrin Haacke, KWB

Issue

Berlin is grappling with an increasingly critical water situation, driven by the dual pressures of climate change and the planned phase-out of brown coal by 2038. As temperatures rise and longer drought periods occur, the city’s water sources are drying up just as demand reaches new heights. The growing population intensifies the strain, putting more pressure on an already stressed system. 

Berlin relies heavily on riverbank filtration and groundwater recharge from surface water for its drinking water production. Consequently, reduced surface water flows during drought periods significantly impact the city’s water supply. 

Adding to these woes is the impending closure of the nearby Lausitz open-pit mine. When the mine shuts down and stops pumping its groundwater into the River Spree, the amount of available water in the Spree river is expected to reduce significantly. As Berlin’s population continues to grow, the water demand is increasing. Furthermore, the settlement of new industries in the metropolitan area further increases the water demand and depletion of water resources. With all these challenges, usage conflicts will increase between water utilities, existing and new industries, farmers, waterways usage (shipping, tourism), and natural habitats in the region – all competing for their share of the limited water. The stakes are high, with water availability and quality at risk, threatening Berlin’s sustainability. 

New policies required
Securing drinking water quality
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Securing drinking water quality

The reliance on riverbank filtration for production of most of Berlin’s drinking water necessitates sufficient surface water quality.

Berlin’s semi-closed water cycle with wastewater treatment plants located upstream of water works becomes increasingly challenging, as shares of treated wastewater increase during low flow conditions and might exceed critical levels in the future, if no measures are taken. 

Conceptual figure illustrating the bank filtration process.
Conceptual figure illustrating the bank filtration process.
Well for drinking water production on the riverbank in Berlin
Well for drinking water production on the riverbank in Berlin

“Challenges posed by trace residues of pharmaceuticals in Berlin’s semi-closed water cycle will increase in the future due to climate change related effects such as substantially reduced surface water flows during prolonged drought periods, as well as increased demand and resulting increase of wastewater discharge.”

Daniel Wicke, KWB

Issue

Berlin is grappling with an increasingly critical water situation, driven by the dual pressures of climate change and the planned phase-out of brown coal by 2038. As temperatures rise and longer drought periods occur, the city’s water sources are drying up just as demand reaches new heights. The growing population intensifies the strain, putting more pressure on an already stressed system. 

Berlin relies heavily on riverbank filtration and groundwater recharge from surface water for its drinking water production. Consequently, reduced surface water flows during drought periods significantly impact the city’s water supply. 

Adding to these woes is the impending closure of the nearby Lausitz open-pit mine. When the mine shuts down and stops pumping its groundwater into the River Spree, the amount of available water in the Spree River is expected to reduce significantly. As Berlin’s population continues to grow, the water demand is increasing. Furthermore, the settlement of new industries in the metropolitan area further increases the water demand and depletion of water resources. With all these challenges, usage conflicts will increase between water utilities, existing and new industries, farmers, waterways usage (shipping, tourism), and natural habitats in the region – all competing for their share of the limited water. The stakes are high, with water availability and quality at risk, threatening Berlin’s sustainability. 

Water stress
New policies required
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New policies required

New policies are required in Berlin to secure the water supply due to a growing population and the impacts of climate change, which are increasing the demand for drinking water and the occurrence of prolonged droughts.

The Berlin water system faces significant challenges from nutrient and pollutant influxes, coal mining consequences, and a notable decrease in groundwater recharge. 

Action Areas and Measures of the Master Plan (modified after SenMVKU)
Action Areas and Measures of the Master Plan (modified after SenMVKU)
Various Projection Scenarios of Population Development in Berlin (modified after SenMVKU)
Various Projection Scenarios of Population Development in Berlin (modified after SenMVKU)

"Comprehensive and strategic planning is essential to address the challenges Berlin’s water resources are facing, ensure water supply sustainability, protect water bodies, and manage wastewater effectively."

Nasrin Haacke, KWB

Issue

The “Masterplan Wasser” is Berlin’s comprehensive strategic framework designed to address future water management challenges from population growth and climate change. It integrates multiple projects and analyses to develop robust strategies for securing drinking water supply, protecting water bodies, and adapting wastewater management. The plan incorporates population growth projections and climate change studies to forecast future water needs and wastewater quantities. Scenario-based risk assessments consider surface and groundwater conditions under various future scenarios, with three main sub-projects focusing on the effects of different water availability scenarios on Berlin’s water system by 2050. 

The plan addresses critical issues impacting Berlin’s water management system, such as pollutants, nutrient influxes, and the effects of coal mining. The dry years of 2018-2020 highlighted the system’s vulnerability, with severe droughts demonstrating the urgent need for reliable minimum water flow to sustain the Spree and Havel river systems. Additionally, the city faces increasing groundwater demand coupled with decreasing recharge rates, further straining the water supply. The growing population exacerbates these challenges, driving higher water demand and increased wastewater generation. 

To mitigate these challenges, the plan includes over 30 concrete measures like implementing a low-flow concept for the Oberhavel River stretch and developing a trace substance strategy with Brandenburg. Significant investments are proposed to enhance water and resource protection, aiming to close knowledge gaps, minimize uncertainties, and develop adaptive measures for future challenges. These steps are essential to counteract the projected 40% reduction in summertime natural surface water runoff by 2040 and to handle climate change consequences. 

Completed projects have provided valuable data and models, while ongoing projects such as IMPETUS continue to refine strategies and assess new risks. The plan remains dynamic, adapting to new findings and ensuring long-term water security for Berlin and its surroundings, making it a crucial blueprint for addressing both immediate needs and long-term sustainability amidst evolving environmental and demographic pressures. 

Securing drinking water quality
Water stress
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High temperatures

Record-breaking summertime temperatures have been recorded in the Netherlands in recent years. With global temperatures rising, such extreme weather events will occur more often, and for longer periods. Prolonged high temperatures, with warm nights as well as hot days, can cause heat stress* and related health issues, particularly among city populations.

*Heat stress occurs when the human body cannot get rid of excess heat and can impact wellbeing through conditions such as heat stroke, exhaustion, cramps and rashes.

Map of Zeeland and Rotterdam in the Netherlands
Zeeland and Rotterdam in the Netherlands (© ESCI)
Heat stress map of Zierikzee in Zeeland
Heat stress map of Zierikzee in Zeeland (© N&S)

"We want to enable municipality decision makers who are working on spatial developments to identify heat stress 'hot spots' and cool areas, analyse the future effects of climate change, and model the effect of different heat stress-reducing measures. The tool must provide them with an easy starting point to integrate heat stress risks in their projects."

Martine Rottink, Nelen & Schuurmans

Issue

Despite the cooling effect of the sea in the region of Zeeland, the growing risk of heat stress has become a concern.

Elderly and other vulnerable people are more impacted by the effects of prolonged heat, which can cause headaches, dizziness, insomnia and other health issues – even death. Excess temperatures also affect general comfort and liveability of cities. Water quality can be reduced, both for drinking and swimming, and infrastructure can be affected. Buildings and concrete surfaces trap heat, potentially leading to damage, and release it during the night, keeping temperatures warm.

During heat waves, it is important that everyone has access to a cool and comfortable place. Appropriate spatial planning can help to decrease and deal with heat stress. Environmental factors like water bodies, trees, and shade have a major impact on stress caused by high temperatures. Therefore, planting trees, removing concrete surfaces, creating green roofs and cool spaces can improve our comfort and health. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is developing a digital tool to support regional decision making for city planning to address these needs.

Flood risk
Energy and waste water
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Flood risk

By 2050, sea-level within this region is predicted to rise by 15-40 cm, with more frequent extreme weather and more (severe) storms triggered by climate change. These changes will exacerbate the natural risk of flooding in the IMPETUS ‘Atlantic’ region, because it is surrounded by rivers and the sea, and is below sea level.

*Risk takes into account two aspects; the chance that an event will occur and the negative impact of such an event once it occurs. When there is a low chance that an event will occur, but its impacts are huge, the risk is still significant.

Zeeland dike
Zeeland dike
Elevation map of Rotterdam and Zeeland
Elevation map of the IMPETUS 'Atlantic' site (© N&S)
Flood risk map of Rotterdam and Zeeland
Flood risk map of the IMPETUS 'Atlantic' site (© N&S)
Elevation map of part of the Netherlands
Elevation map of part of the Netherlands (© N&S)

“In the Netherlands, an extensive system of dikes protects us against sea and river flooding. We have always put our faith in this defence and focused almost solely on flood prevention. However, pressure on our system will increase with climate change and rising sea levels. To adapt and maintain a safe living environment, we should develop other safety measures, like more robust spatial planning and contingency plans."

Martine Rottink, Nelen & Schuurmans

Issue

Rotterdam city, is located in Rijnmond – ‘mouth of the Rhine’. The Rhine river flows through this densely populated area and characterises the region. Protections such as sea dikes and storm surge barriers have been constructed to protect the region, but flooding still occurs.

People living in the city are accustomed to seeing smaller floods. The changing climate affects the interplay between rainfall, river levels and sea storms, increasing the flooding risk. Water levels could rise by a few metres, even in populated areas, with potentially massive impacts. 

Mitigation measures such as storm surge barriers reduce the chance that high water reaches the city, but to minimise the impact of floods when they do occur, adaptation strategies are also needed. A city that can adapt to be safe from floods must be carefully designed. How best to design such an adaptive city?

Critical infrastructure, such as hospitals and evacuation routes, must be accessible at all times. Planning how to best protect them, homes and lives is complex. Flood water behaves in a complex way and flood risks show strong spatial variations. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is developing a digital tool to support regional decision making for adaptive city planning. 

Energy and waste water
High temperatures
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Energy and waste water

To become climate-neutral by 2050, climate mitigation* efforts are crucial in our strategy for how to deal with climate change. Reducing our energy consumption is a significant mitigation step. In the Netherlands, 15% of energy is consumed in the Rijnmond area around the port of Rotterdam, in large part by a major petrochemical industry cluster.

*Climate mitigation encompasses measures such as technologies, processes, or practices that reduce carbon emissions or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.

Map of Zeeland and Rotterdam in the Netherlands
Zeeland and Rotterdam in the Netherlands (© ESCI)
Zeeland dike
Zeeland dike

Issue

The Rotterdam port petrochemical industry cluster is Europe’s largest. It consumes 70% of the Rijnmond region’s energy. A large part of this energy is wasted (64%, 203 petajoules). More than half of that energy is lost with wastewater. In addition, most energy processes within these industries rely on fossil fuels, which has a significant impact on the climate.

Energy use must be minimised and fossil fuels should be replaced by renewable sources if climate change is to be mitigated. Electrification of processes opens up the possibility to use more renewable energy and can greatly impact decarbonisation. Recovering wasted heat would significantly reduce energy consumption and is a first step towards a more circular industry. 

Supporting industries in a transition towards climate-neutrality depends on identifying how best to reduce their carbon footprint without sacrificing production or performance. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is creating a digital tool that supports decision making about pathways towards an effective energy transition for EU industry.

High temperatures
Flood risk