Arctic demo site

Troms & Finmark, NO

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Situation:

Beyond the Arctic circle, in the northernmost mainland region of Norway, the IMPETUS Arctic demonstration site in Troms and Finnmark County shares its eastern borders with Sweden, Finland and Russia.

Fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, mining, oil and gas and reindeer herding are the largest economic sectors. With fewer than 250,000 residents in more than 70,000 km2 of land, communities and infrastructure are nevertheless at risk from landslides, rockfalls, avalanches and fjord tsunamis triggered by climate-change-driven changes such as warming, intense precipitation, unstable snow cover, glacial retreat and sea level rise.

PROGNOSIS

higher losses from disasters such as landslides in the past ten years, compared to the previous 30 years in Norway.
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With winter temperatures already 4-5°C higher than the 20th Century average, the rapidity of climate change is already well perceived and adaptation plans are being developed.

Contact this team | Kontakt dette teamet  :

  • Torill Nyseth – torill.nyseth[@]uit.no
  • Andreas H. Hagset  – andreas.hagset[@]tromsfylke.no

Issues:

Fisheries and aquaculture declining

  • Fish productivity and suitability of sites for aquaculture impacted by global warming, sea level changes, oceanographic variables, frequency and magnitude of extreme events.
  • More precipitation and extreme weather exacerbate these problems and increase physical and biological risks, such as harmful algal blooms.

Hazard risks increasing

  • Landslides, rockfalls, avalanches increasingly likely as climate change drives warming, intense precipitation, unstable snow cover, permafrost thawing, glacial retreat, and groundwater changes.
  • Communities and infrastructure threatened by fjord tsunamis, river blockages and environmental destruction if high-risk slopes destabilise.

Flooding and water management

  • Commercial and industrial sites affected by flooding from extreme sea levels in low-lying areas.
  • The northern location and climate change factors may affect urban water systems.

Ambitions within IMPETUS:

Create a regional Resilience Knowledge Booster

with datasets, observing systems and knowledge resources from economic actors, citizens’ groups, research institutions and other stakeholders.

Provide the stakeholder community with modelling tools

to develop local and regional scenarios of climate change and future impacts.

Develop a 4-dimensional digital twin

of the coastal area, with all available knowledge of the territory and advanced visualisation techniques.

Co-create packages of innovative solutions and adaptation pathways

using the digital twin and Resilience Knowledge Booster.

Demonstrate outputs and best practices

of the Resilience Knowledge Booster and digital twin to decision-making bodies to reinforce the Troms & Finnmark County planning activities.

Contribute to the adaptation and climate-proofing of Tromsø city’s infrastructural systems and urban water management

in conjunction with a municipality project on climate adaptive development along the waterfront.

to pave the way for:

Continuation of the Resilience Knowledge Booster

as a stable initiative of UiT and the county administration, supporting climate change adaptation plans and the long-term resilience of the region.

Medium-to-long-term financial planning

based on IMPETUS adaptation pathways.

Test solutions:

Early warning system for avalanches, rockslides, or landslides

Technology Readiness Level 7-8/9

Climate-change-driven changes such as warming, intense precipitation, erratic and unstable snow cover, permafrost thawing, glacial retreat, and changes to groundwater regimes each contribute to the increasing risks of hazards such as landslides, rockfalls, rockslides and snow avalanches. Secondary consequences such as fjord tsunamis, rivers becoming dammed and flooding also bring high risks to infrastructure and communities. Most of the region’s dangerous sites are monitored, but the currently used early warning system needs substantial improvement to allow evacuation of people into safe areas.

In IMPETUS

Lead partner: UiT

  • Implement and demonstrate new multiple sensors and advanced automatic interpretation of signals to increase the system’s reliability;
  • Increase the system’s anticipation time by 30% to better ensure timely evacuation is possible.

This work is linked with:

Digital Twin for freshwater and marine management

Technology Readiness Level 5-7

Evaluation of climate change risks is traditionally carried out via the crossing of results from impact modelling under different climate scenarios, vulnerability, and exposure assessment. In most planning conditions the risk assessment is generated from the overlapping of different Geographic Information System (GIS) layers; an effective methodology that is not easy for non-technical people to interpret, however, and is difficult to use in stakeholder co-design processes.

In IMPETUS

Lead Partner: TFFK

  • Demonstrate the potential of integrating state-of-the-art GIS representation of multiple variables with advanced 3D visualisation techniques to generate a 4D (3D+time) digital twin of the territory, making visualisation of risk areas and possible impacts much more effective and user friendly;
  • Use the digital twin to support the co-design of Marine Spatial Planning decisions for better regulation of fishery, aquaculture, and other marine areas;
  • Use the digital twin to support the co-design of climate-proofing actions to protect coastal cities from sea-level rise.

This work is linked with:

  • Troms&Finnmark County Marine Spatial Planning programme 2021-2024
  • EU Destination Earth Initiative, DestinE,
  • Water Framework Directive,
  • Digital Single Market Strategy,
  • Netherlands Delta Program,
  • Greenathon by the Hellenic Ministry of Environment and Energy,

Economic impact assessment of physical climate risk

Technology Readiness Level 4-5

Socio-Economic tools and risk projections enable the assessment of climate risks and the establishment of projections and metrics regarding future investments.

In IMPETUS

Lead Partner: Lobelia Earth

  • Identify highly vulnerable hot-spots using open datasets for Copernicus services and satellite-derived variables;
  • Transform this knowledge into a specific regional model and include this in the Resilience Knowledge Booster;
  • Use the RKB and regional model to elaborate economic assessment metrics to aid decision making about investments and future mitigation plans.

This work is linked with:

  • European Investment Bank
  • European Central Bank
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High temperatures

Record-breaking summertime temperatures have been recorded in the Netherlands in recent years. With global temperatures rising, such extreme weather events will occur more often, and for longer periods. Prolonged high temperatures, with warm nights as well as hot days, can cause heat stress* and related health issues, particularly among city populations.

*Heat stress occurs when the human body cannot get rid of excess heat and can impact wellbeing through conditions such as heat stroke, exhaustion, cramps and rashes.

Map of Zeeland and Rotterdam in the Netherlands
Zeeland and Rotterdam in the Netherlands (© ESCI)
Heat stress map of Zierikzee in Zeeland
Heat stress map of Zierikzee in Zeeland (© N&S)

"We want to enable municipality decision makers who are working on spatial developments to identify heat stress 'hot spots' and cool areas, analyse the future effects of climate change, and model the effect of different heat stress-reducing measures. The tool must provide them with an easy starting point to integrate heat stress risks in their projects."

Martine Rottink, Nelen & Schuurmans

Issue

Despite the cooling effect of the sea in the region of Zeeland, the growing risk of heat stress has become a concern.

Elderly and other vulnerable people are more impacted by the effects of prolonged heat, which can cause headaches, dizziness, insomnia and other health issues – even death. Excess temperatures also affect general comfort and liveability of cities. Water quality can be reduced, both for drinking and swimming, and infrastructure can be affected. Buildings and concrete surfaces trap heat, potentially leading to damage, and release it during the night, keeping temperatures warm.

During heat waves, it is important that everyone has access to a cool and comfortable place. Appropriate spatial planning can help to decrease and deal with heat stress. Environmental factors like water bodies, trees, and shade have a major impact on stress caused by high temperatures. Therefore, planting trees, removing concrete surfaces, creating green roofs and cool spaces can improve our comfort and health. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is developing a digital tool to support regional decision making for city planning to address these needs.

Flood risk
Energy and waste water
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Flood risk

By 2050, sea-level within this region is predicted to rise by 15-40 cm, with more frequent extreme weather and more (severe) storms triggered by climate change. These changes will exacerbate the natural risk of flooding in the IMPETUS ‘Atlantic’ region, because it is surrounded by rivers and the sea, and is below sea level.

*Risk takes into account two aspects; the chance that an event will occur and the negative impact of such an event once it occurs. When there is a low chance that an event will occur, but its impacts are huge, the risk is still significant.

Zeeland dike
Zeeland dike
Elevation map of Rotterdam and Zeeland
Elevation map of the IMPETUS 'Atlantic' site (© N&S)
Flood risk map of Rotterdam and Zeeland
Flood risk map of the IMPETUS 'Atlantic' site (© N&S)
Elevation map of part of the Netherlands
Elevation map of part of the Netherlands (© N&S)

“In the Netherlands, an extensive system of dikes protects us against sea and river flooding. We have always put our faith in this defence and focused almost solely on flood prevention. However, pressure on our system will increase with climate change and rising sea levels. To adapt and maintain a safe living environment, we should develop other safety measures, like more robust spatial planning and contingency plans."

Martine Rottink, Nelen & Schuurmans

Issue

Rotterdam city, is located in Rijnmond – ‘mouth of the Rhine’. The Rhine river flows through this densely populated area and characterises the region. Protections such as sea dikes and storm surge barriers have been constructed to protect the region, but flooding still occurs.

People living in the city are accustomed to seeing smaller floods. The changing climate affects the interplay between rainfall, river levels and sea storms, increasing the flooding risk. Water levels could rise by a few metres, even in populated areas, with potentially massive impacts. 

Mitigation measures such as storm surge barriers reduce the chance that high water reaches the city, but to minimise the impact of floods when they do occur, adaptation strategies are also needed. A city that can adapt to be safe from floods must be carefully designed. How best to design such an adaptive city?

Critical infrastructure, such as hospitals and evacuation routes, must be accessible at all times. Planning how to best protect them, homes and lives is complex. Flood water behaves in a complex way and flood risks show strong spatial variations. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is developing a digital tool to support regional decision making for adaptive city planning. 

Energy and waste water
High temperatures
icon_factory

Energy and waste water

To become climate-neutral by 2050, climate mitigation* efforts are crucial in our strategy for how to deal with climate change. Reducing our energy consumption is a significant mitigation step. In the Netherlands, 15% of energy is consumed in the Rijnmond area around the port of Rotterdam, in large part by a major petrochemical industry cluster.

*Climate mitigation encompasses measures such as technologies, processes, or practices that reduce carbon emissions or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.

Map of Zeeland and Rotterdam in the Netherlands
Zeeland and Rotterdam in the Netherlands (© ESCI)
Zeeland dike
Zeeland dike

Issue

The Rotterdam port petrochemical industry cluster is Europe’s largest. It consumes 70% of the Rijnmond region’s energy. A large part of this energy is wasted (64%, 203 petajoules). More than half of that energy is lost with wastewater. In addition, most energy processes within these industries rely on fossil fuels, which has a significant impact on the climate.

Energy use must be minimised and fossil fuels should be replaced by renewable sources if climate change is to be mitigated. Electrification of processes opens up the possibility to use more renewable energy and can greatly impact decarbonisation. Recovering wasted heat would significantly reduce energy consumption and is a first step towards a more circular industry. 

Supporting industries in a transition towards climate-neutrality depends on identifying how best to reduce their carbon footprint without sacrificing production or performance. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is creating a digital tool that supports decision making about pathways towards an effective energy transition for EU industry.

High temperatures
Flood risk