Arctic demo site

Troms & Finmark, NO

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Prognosis

260 %

higher losses from disasters such as landslides in the past ten years, compared to the previous 30 years in Norway.

With winter temperatures already 4-5°C higher than the 20th Century average, the rapidity of climate change is already well perceived and adaptation plans are being developed.

Situation

Beyond the Arctic circle, in the northernmost mainland region of Norway, the IMPETUS Arctic demonstration site in Troms and Finnmark County shares its eastern borders with Sweden, Finland and Russia.

Fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, mining, oil and gas and reindeer herding are the largest economic sectors. With fewer than 250,000 residents in more than 70,000 km2 of land, communities and infrastructure are nevertheless at risk from landslides, rockfalls, avalanches and fjord tsunamis triggered by climate-change-driven changes such as warming, intense precipitation, unstable snow cover, glacial retreat and sea level rise.

Climate related issues

Sustinable management of fisheries and aquaculture

Climate change has already had a significant impact on fisheries and aquaculture in Northern Norway.

Natural hazard risks increasing

Increasing temperatures and precipitation are driving an increased frequency of natural hazard events such as landslides and avalanches.

Flooding and water management

Rising sea water temperatures and the increased frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events have led to shifts in fish distribution and growth rates, thereby affecting operational practices in these industries and ecosystems.

Key actions

  • Marine spatial planing for marine protection and sustainable fishery
  • Risk assessment for future avalanche and earth movement changes and development of early warning systems
  • Awareness raising, stakeholder involvement and risk assessment related to sea level rise and flooding risk in inhabited areas.

Contact us

Demonstration site leader

Rune Grand Graversen

rune.graversen[@]tromsfylke.no

Fishery and aquaculture

Andreas H. Hagset

andreas.hagset[@]tromsfylke.no

Keshav Paudel

keshav.p.paudel[@]uit.no

Kari Elida Eriksen

kari.e.eriksen[@]uit.no

Hazard risks

Louise Vick

louise.m.vick[@]uit.no

Christopher D'Amboise

christopher.dambois[@]uit.no

Kai-Uwe Eiselt

kai-uwe.eiselt[@]uit.no

Flooding and Water Management

Torill Nyseth

torill.nyseth[@]uit.no

Andreas H. Hagset

andreas.hagset[@]tromsfylke.no

Mina Benjegård

mina.e.benjegard[@]uit.no

Events

Current Month

News

Resources

Relevant sectors:

Municipality

Coastal zone planning

Public administration

Fishery

Sky tourism industry

National road service

Urban planning

Citizens

Urban developers

Our ambitions

We aim to create a regional Resilience Knowledge Booster with datasets, observing systems and knowledge resources from economic actors, citizens’ groups, research institutions and other stakeholders.

We also aim to provide the stakeholder community with modelling tools
to develop local and regional scenarios of climate change and future impacts.

We will develop a 4-dimensional digital twin of the coastal area, with all available knowledge of the territory and advanced visualisation techniques.

One of our ambitions is to co-create packages of innovative solutions and adaptation pathways using the digital twin and Resilience Knowledge Booster.

In addition, we aim to demonstrate outputs and best practices of the Resilience Knowledge Booster and digital twin to decision-making bodies to reinforce the Troms & Finnmark County planning activities.

We contribute to the adaptation and climate-proofing of Tromsø city’s infrastructural systems and urban water management in conjunction with a municipality project on climate adaptive development along the waterfront.
to pave the way for:

  • Continuation of the Resilience Knowledge Booster as a stable initiative of UiT and the county administration, supporting climate change adaptation plans and the long-term resilience of the region.
  • Medium-to-long-term financial planning based on IMPETUS adaptation pathways.
  • Introductory meetings with stakeholders
  • Introduce and engage key stakeholders to the digital tools and solutions being developed
  • Develop digital tools
  • Test digital tools with stakeholders and gather feedback
  • Public engagement
  • Apply and further integrate tools to support decision makers within the region
  • Share tools and knowledge with others
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Issues

Region-specific solutions

Early warning system for avalanches, rockslides, or landslides

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The risk posed to arctic communities from natural hazards is expected to change as the arctic is projected to become warmer and wetter under climate change.

To combat this mitigation measures in the form of early warning systems, hazard maps and other avoidance measures can be used as a risk reduction strategy. Two gravitational natural hazards that occur in the arctic are slushflows and rock avalanches. A greater understanding of the physical processes taking place during hazard events, and the initiation/timing of events supplies the responsible authorities with vital information to fine-tune the early warnign and forecasting systems. This work could lead to enhanced risk reduction in the form of planning avoidance measures.

Our approach:

  • Increase the understanding of movements in unstable rock slope and how weather and climate may lead to catastropic rock avalanches. Data produced from the monitoring of the high-risk unstable rock slope Gámanjunni-3 in northern Norwawy will be analysed for movements under different weather and temperature changes.
  • Develop a method for hazard mapping of the slushflow hazard. Development of a classification system for wet snow avalanches to slushflows is necessary to describe the diversity of behavior observed.

This work is linked with:

  • NVE‘s monitoring and early warning system for rock slopes, NGU‘s hazard mapping of rock slopes in Norway.

Digital Twin for freshwater and marine management

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Evaluation of climate change risks is traditionally carried out via the crossing of results from impact modelling under different climate scenarios, vulnerability, and exposure assessment.

In most planning conditions the risk assessment is generated from the overlapping of different Geographic Information System (GIS) layers; an effective methodology that is not easy for non-technical people to interpret, however, and is difficult to use in stakeholder co-design processes.

 Our approach:

  • Demonstrate the potential of integrating state-of-the-art GIS representation of multiple variables with advanced visualisation techniques to generate a digital twin of the territory, making visualisation of risk areas and possible impacts much more effective and user friendly.
  • Use the digital twin to support the co-design of Marine Spatial Planning decisions for better regulation of fishery, aquaculture, and other marine areas.
  • Use the digital twin to support the co-design of climate-proofing actions to protect coastal cities from sea-level rise and flooding.

Our approach focuses on the co-creation of solutions, actively involving key stakeholders in both the design and validation of the tools. We use open datasets from national spatial data infrastructures, satellite derived variables and Copernicus services.

This work is linked with:

  • Troms&Finnmark County Marine Spatial Planning programme 2021-2024
  • EU Destination Earth Initiative, DestinE
  • Water Framework Directive, Digital Single Market Strategy
  • Netherlands Delta Program
  • Greenathon by the Hellenic Ministry of Environment and Energy

Economic impact assessment of physical climate risk

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Socio-Economic tools and risk projections enable the assessment of climate risks and the establishment of projections and metrics regarding future investments.

Our approach:

  • Identify highly vulnerable hot-spots using open datasets for Copernicus services and satellite-derived variables.
  • Transform this knowledge into a specific regional model and include this in the Resilience Knowledge Booster.
  • Use the RKB and regional model to elaborate economic assessment metrics to aid decision making about investments and future mitigation plans.

This work is linked with:

  • European Investment Bank
  • European Central Bank
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Sustainable management of fisheries and aquaculture

Rising sea temperatures, ocean acidification, and rising sea levels, along with more frequent and severe extreme weather events, significantly impact fish productivity, habitats, migration patterns, and reproductive cycles. These changes lead to shifts in the distribution and abundance of fish stocks, affecting the availability of target species for fishing both temporarily and spatially.

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"As marine environments are put under stress by increasing temperatures and a higher demand for space in the coastal zone, we hope to see that the integration of the MSP framework leads to better informed decision making and climate adaption in the region."

Andreas H. Hagset, Project Manager, Troms fylkeskommune

Issue

Global warming and related climate events influence fish productivity, reproduction, and disease, as well as changes in aquatic habitats and the suitability of sites for sustainable aquaculture. The increase in extreme weather events further compounds these issues, heightening physical and biological risks such as harmful algal blooms. These climate-related challenges necessitate adaptive planning strategies for both the short and long term.

To address this, the Arctic Demo site is developing a GIS-based visualization tool to support the co-design of Marine Spatial Planning decisions for better regulation of fishery, aquaculture, and other marine areas.

Flooding and water management
Natural hazard risks increasing
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Natural hazard risks increasing

Northern Norway is a unique landscape with mountains jetting up out of the sea and fjords. This is a major challenge for the road network, power transmission lines and other important infrastructure.

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The risk of landslides to society in the Arctic is increasing due to event frequency increase from climate change and from urbanisation. We do not fully understand the links between event drivers such as rainfall and mountain slope collapse leading to landslides. This relationship must be investigated further to have reliable and robust early warning systems for the future.

Louise Vick, UiT The Arctic University of Norway

Slushflows and wet snow avalanche occurrence will increase as rainfall in the Arctic increases by up to 40% with climate change. We must be prepared to adapt to these hazard events to ensure a safer society in the mountains, on roads and in settlements.

Louise Vick, UiT The Arctic University of Norway

Issue

Many settlements and roads are built on the flatter terrain located at the bottom of a mountain slope on the coast or in a valley bottom. This leaves much of the infrastructure exposed to gravitational natural hazards such as snow avalanches, shallow landslides and rockfalls.

With a warmer wetting climate in northern Norway it is expected that the magnitude and frequency of gravitational natural hazards will change.

Sustainable management of fisheries and aquaculture
Flooding and water management
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Flooding and water management

Tromsø city is located on an island in Arctic Norway, with the center being built mostly along the sea side. Tromsø has been a fast growing city for many years and new development has been built into the sea through land reclamation.

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Issue

In the city of Tromsø, new developments and infrastructure are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges. Other low-laying areas such as the old town including built heritage and commercial and industrial sites are also affected.

Tromsø is also affected by storm-water due to increased percipitation and temparature leading to snow melting floods in spring. The urban water systems are affected as this challenges their capacity to manage the increased amount of water.

These climate risks are challenging for the adaptation planning both in a short and long term perspective, as they are interdependent and complex, affecting both public and private properties.

The Arctic Demo site is developing a digital twin as a tool to support municipal adaptive planning.

Natural hazard risks increasing
Sustainable management of fisheries and aquaculture
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Flood risk

By 2050, sea-level within this region is predicted to rise by 15-40 cm, with more frequent extreme weather and more (severe) storms triggered by climate change. These changes will exacerbate the natural risk of flooding in the IMPETUS ‘Atlantic’ region, because it is surrounded by rivers and the sea, and is below sea level.

*Risk takes into account two aspects; the chance that an event will occur and the negative impact of such an event once it occurs. When there is a low chance that an event will occur, but its impacts are huge, the risk is still significant.

Zeeland dike
Zeeland dike
Elevation map of Rotterdam and Zeeland
Elevation map of the IMPETUS 'Atlantic' site (© N&S)
Flood risk map of Rotterdam and Zeeland
Flood risk map of the IMPETUS 'Atlantic' site (© N&S)
Elevation map of part of the Netherlands
Elevation map of part of the Netherlands (© N&S)

“In the Netherlands, an extensive system of dikes protects us against sea and river flooding. We have always put our faith in this defence and focused almost solely on flood prevention. However, pressure on our system will increase with climate change and rising sea levels. To adapt and maintain a safe living environment, we should develop other safety measures, like more robust spatial planning and contingency plans."

Martine Rottink, Nelen & Schuurmans

Issue

Rotterdam city, is located in Rijnmond – ‘mouth of the Rhine’. The Rhine river flows through this densely populated area and characterises the region. Protections such as sea dikes and storm surge barriers have been constructed to protect the region, but flooding still occurs.

People living in the city are accustomed to seeing smaller floods. The changing climate affects the interplay between rainfall, river levels and sea storms, increasing the flooding risk. Water levels could rise by a few metres, even in populated areas, with potentially massive impacts. 

Mitigation measures such as storm surge barriers reduce the chance that high water reaches the city, but to minimise the impact of floods when they do occur, adaptation strategies are also needed. A city that can adapt to be safe from floods must be carefully designed. How best to design such an adaptive city?

Critical infrastructure, such as hospitals and evacuation routes, must be accessible at all times. Planning how to best protect them, homes and lives is complex. Flood water behaves in a complex way and flood risks show strong spatial variations. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is developing a digital tool to support regional decision making for adaptive city planning. 

Energy and waste water
High temperatures
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Energy and waste water

To become climate-neutral by 2050, climate mitigation* efforts are crucial in our strategy for how to deal with climate change. Reducing our energy consumption is a significant mitigation step. In the Netherlands, 15% of energy is consumed in the Rijnmond area around the port of Rotterdam, in large part by a major petrochemical industry cluster.

*Climate mitigation encompasses measures such as technologies, processes, or practices that reduce carbon emissions or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.

Map of Zeeland and Rotterdam in the Netherlands
Zeeland and Rotterdam in the Netherlands (© ESCI)
Zeeland dike
Zeeland dike

Issue

The Rotterdam port petrochemical industry cluster is Europe’s largest. It consumes 70% of the Rijnmond region’s energy. A large part of this energy is wasted (64%, 203 petajoules). More than half of that energy is lost with wastewater. In addition, most energy processes within these industries rely on fossil fuels, which has a significant impact on the climate.

Energy use must be minimised and fossil fuels should be replaced by renewable sources if climate change is to be mitigated. Electrification of processes opens up the possibility to use more renewable energy and can greatly impact decarbonisation. Recovering wasted heat would significantly reduce energy consumption and is a first step towards a more circular industry. 

Supporting industries in a transition towards climate-neutrality depends on identifying how best to reduce their carbon footprint without sacrificing production or performance. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is creating a digital tool that supports decision making about pathways towards an effective energy transition for EU industry.

High temperatures
Flood risk
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High temperatures

Record-breaking summertime temperatures have been recorded in the Netherlands in recent years. With global temperatures rising, such extreme weather events will occur more often, and for longer periods. Prolonged high temperatures, with warm nights as well as hot days, can cause heat stress* and related health issues, particularly among city populations.

*Heat stress occurs when the human body cannot get rid of excess heat and can impact wellbeing through conditions such as heat stroke, exhaustion, cramps and rashes.

Map of Zeeland and Rotterdam in the Netherlands
Zeeland and Rotterdam in the Netherlands (© ESCI)
Heat stress map of Zierikzee in Zeeland
Heat stress map of Zierikzee in Zeeland (© N&S)

"We want to enable municipality decision makers who are working on spatial developments to identify heat stress 'hot spots' and cool areas, analyse the future effects of climate change, and model the effect of different heat stress-reducing measures. The tool must provide them with an easy starting point to integrate heat stress risks in their projects."

Martine Rottink, Nelen & Schuurmans

Issue

Despite the cooling effect of the sea in the region of Zeeland, the growing risk of heat stress has become a concern.

Elderly and other vulnerable people are more impacted by the effects of prolonged heat, which can cause headaches, dizziness, insomnia and other health issues – even death. Excess temperatures also affect general comfort and liveability of cities. Water quality can be reduced, both for drinking and swimming, and infrastructure can be affected. Buildings and concrete surfaces trap heat, potentially leading to damage, and release it during the night, keeping temperatures warm.

During heat waves, it is important that everyone has access to a cool and comfortable place. Appropriate spatial planning can help to decrease and deal with heat stress. Environmental factors like water bodies, trees, and shade have a major impact on stress caused by high temperatures. Therefore, planting trees, removing concrete surfaces, creating green roofs and cool spaces can improve our comfort and health. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is developing a digital tool to support regional decision making for city planning to address these needs.

Flood risk
Energy and waste water
icon_flood

Issue name

Record-breaking summertime temperatures have been recorded in the Netherlands in recent years. With global temperatures rising, such extreme weather events will occur more often, and for longer periods. Prolonged high temperatures, with warm nights as well as hot days, can cause heat stress* and related health issues, particularly among city populations.

*Heat stress occurs when the human body cannot get rid of excess heat and can impact wellbeing through conditions such as heat stroke, exhaustion, cramps and rashes.

Map of Zeeland and Rotterdam in the Netherlands
Zeeland and Rotterdam in the Netherlands (© ESCI)
Heat stress map of Zierikzee in Zeeland
Heat stress map of Zierikzee in Zeeland (© N&S)

"We want to enable municipality decision makers who are working on spatial developments to identify heat stress 'hot spots' and cool areas, analyse the future effects of climate change, and model the effect of different heat stress-reducing measures. The tool must provide them with an easy starting point to integrate heat stress risks in their projects."

Martine Rottink, Nelen & Schuurmans

Issue

Despite the cooling effect of the sea in the region of Zeeland, the growing risk of heat stress has become a concern.

Elderly and other vulnerable people are more impacted by the effects of prolonged heat, which can cause headaches, dizziness, insomnia and other health issues – even death. Excess temperatures also affect general comfort and liveability of cities. Water quality can be reduced, both for drinking and swimming, and infrastructure can be affected. Buildings and concrete surfaces trap heat, potentially leading to damage, and release it during the night, keeping temperatures warm.

During heat waves, it is important that everyone has access to a cool and comfortable place. Appropriate spatial planning can help to decrease and deal with heat stress. Environmental factors like water bodies, trees, and shade have a major impact on stress caused by high temperatures. Therefore, planting trees, removing concrete surfaces, creating green roofs and cool spaces can improve our comfort and health. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is developing a digital tool to support regional decision making for city planning to address these needs.

Flood risk
Energy and waste water