In July 2024, the Latvian city of Jelgava was hit by a storm that brought three months of rain in just 24 hours. Streets and homes flooded, and electricity was cut for two days. Such extreme weather events are becoming more common as climate change accelerates, and authorities are searching for new ways to protect communities.
Changing flood risks in Jelgava
Jelgava, the capital of the Zemgale region, is no stranger to flooding. The city often experiences rising waters in winter and spring, but milder winters and hotter summers are changing how and when floods occur.
āThere is room for accumulation of moisture in the atmosphere, and this could end up with heavy rainfalls like we experienced last year,ā explains IngrÄ«da BrÄmere, deputy chairperson of the Baltic Environmental Forum.
The early warning system: predicting floods in advance
The newly launched web-based application provides residents with alerts about potential floods before they happen. Citizens can register and select up to three locations, such as their home, workplace, or childās school, to receive targeted warnings.
āAt the core of the system is a powerful flood simulation tool called the HEC-RAS model, which uses weather forecasts to predict where water might rise,ā says Marija Stocka, Project Manager at the Jelgava Digital Centre. āRight now, we can predict these floods one to two days before theyāre actually coming.ā
From data to action: how authorities respond
When the system identifies a risk, trained experts are alerted. They use drones to capture real-time images of the threatened areas. These images are shared with the Civil Protection Commission, which can then decide whether to issue evacuation warnings or take other emergency measures.
This step-by-step approach means alerts are not only timely, but also accurate ā reaching the people who need them most.
Building resilience for the future
The system also stores flood data for long-term analysis. This allows authorities to see how often floods occur, which areas are most affected, and how risks are changing over time.
These insights feed into Jelgavaās Climate Change Adaptation Plan, which connects local needs with European best practices. For example, instead of only upgrading expensive drainage systems, planners may look to nature-based solutions, such as restoring wetlands, to manage flood risks more effectively.
āIt is clear that climate change will go on,ā says BrÄmere. āWe will have to adapt also our climate change adaptation plan. Maybe there will come new measures, new needs to implement and this will go on. This is never-ending story now.ā
Extreme rainfall events are likely to become more frequent and severe across Europe. With the new early warning system, Jelgava is showing how cities can use data, technology, and cross-border collaboration to adapt to a changing climate.
