IMPETUS highlights satellite data importance for climate adaptation – ESA Living Planet Symposium 

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Remote sensing data from Earth observation satellites is central to the urgent task of tackling climate change and related work in the EU-funded IMPETUS project. IMPETUS is combining satellite data with societal, financial, administrative, economic and environmental inputs in innovative ways to create a powerful mechanism for science-based climate-change related policy making, knowledge sharing and citizen engagement. This game-changing approach was presented at the 2022 ESA Living Planet Symposium, where more than five thousand scientists, technology experts, and policymakers gathered to exchange the latest knowledge about Earth observation technology and data use.

Climate change has emerged as one of the greatest threats our world faces. It affects every environment differently: heatwaves may occur in the Netherlands while flooding may hit Germany, and wildfires could break out in Greece, while Italy experiences water shortages. The complexity of these issues is why climate change impacts can’t be tackled with a single or isolated approach. Adaptation and mitigation strategies must take regional factors into account. This way, local administrations and communities in different bioclimatic regions can determine which adaptation solutions and investments are appropriate for them. IMPETUS addresses this need by combining satellite data with regionally relevant information, digital tools and human interactions in a new way to create ‘Resilience Knowledge Boosters’ (RKBs). Focusing this work around 7 European bioclimatic regional test sites, the IMPETUS RKBs will facilitate understanding of the local challenges and involve citizens and other stakeholders in creating appropriate solutions and decisions. This approach will also support the flow of knowledge to other communities that can benefit from similar climate change mitigation and adaptation solutions. 

Expert partners and a novel approach 

To achieve its innovative combination of satellite data with other kinds of inputs, IMPETUS uses the expertise of several of its 32 partners: Lobelia Earth – a Barcelona-based enterprise that is a significant player in satellite technology, computational intelligence and data visualisation for climate action; Waterjade by MobyGIS S.r.l. – an Italian organisation that supports IMPETUS development of local-scale climate and hydrologic projections; Eurecat – the leading technology centre in Catalonia, Spain, that coordinates the IMPETUS project and its development of digital technologies for optimal regional climate adaptation strategies; and UiT The Arctic University of Norway, where Dr Andrea Marinoni, an expert in data analysis, is Associate Professor of Applied Remote Sensing. Dr Marinoni presented the project’s objectives and work during the Living Planet Symposium in a session on ‘Climate Security – The key role of R&I and cooperation to address global threats’. 

“The novelty of our approach is to bring together not only the digital dimension of the studies of climate change – sensors, observations, measurements that we can gather across the different demonstration sites and the different regions of Europe – but we will take into account the human dimension. This means having the constant engagement of stakeholders, communities and authorities in our process, so we will be able to understand in practice what climate change means for the different regions in Europe and how this can be addressed in a way that will be impactful.”

Andrea Marinoni of UiT The Arctic University of Norway, presenting IMPETUS at ESA Living Planet Symposium 2022

Andrea Marinoni at Living Planet Symposium 2022: Left – presenting the IMPETUS project; Right: being interviewed

Sentinels of change

A particularly important source of data for IMPETUS is the Sentinel constellation of satellites, which the European Space Agency (ESA) coordinates as part of the Copernicus programme. These satellites use various instruments to monitor our changing planet in different ways, providing a global picture of factors that are significant to our understanding of climate change and its effects, such as temperatures, vegetation and water quantity and quality.  

“Sentinel satellites are able to observe and monitor water bodies in particular. They can be used to estimate the water quantity and quality in lakes and rivers. Sentinel-2 can be used to monitor river flow and estimate discharge, and to monitor snow coverage in the Alpine regions, whereas Sentinel-1 can be used to observe the melting of snow during the spring season.”

Federico Di Paolo, Earth observation specialist, Waterjade by MobyGIS S.r.l 

Understanding snow cover and melt is important for anticipating the amount of water that will be available in regions such as Valle dei Laghi in the Italian Alps, where IMPETUS has one of its 7 demonstration sites. Waterjade by MobyGIS S.r.l. is a partner here, with an important role in processing the satellite data that feeds into the regional climate models and projections. In the eo4alps Snow project, which is funded by ESA, the European Space Agency, Waterjade by MobyGIS S.r.l. and another IMPETUS partner – EURAC research – joined forces with other organisations to create a snow cover visualisation app. This app is expected to become part of the IMPETUS digital toolkit for this demonstration site. At the ESA Living Planet Symposium, the app was demonstrated for the first time by CEO of Waterjade, Matteo Dall’Amico.

“Our aim is to provide public administrations or, say, wineries who are taking water for their daily business with a decision support system to negotiate better during water crises. IMPETUS is becoming very, very urgent because such tools could be very efficient in providing insights on how much water there is going to be in the next weeks or in the next months.”

Matteo Dall’Amico, CEO of Waterjade by MobyGIS S.r.l. 

Matteo Dall’Amico at Living Planet Symposium 2022: Left – with Federico di Paolo presenting the eo4alps Snow app; Right: being interviewed

Benefits for businesses and communities

Monitoring water is only one of the ways in which satellite data will contribute to the benefits that the IMPETUS project is aiming towards. Remote sensing data inputs into the IMPETUS Resilience Knowledge Boosters and to digital twins of some of the project demonstration sites will also support improvements to, for example, early warning systems for flooding in Latvia and the Netherlands and for landslides, avalanches and fjord tsunamis in Norway. It will also support regional climate change policy and investment decisions that benefit agriculture, aquaculture, fisheries, marine spatial planning, forestry, tourism and other sectors as well as local communities in these and the other participating regions in Spain, Greece and Germany. 

“Remote sensing is one of the keystones of our project, to understand the characteristics of all the dynamics of the different ecosystems that we will monitor and retrieve information about the risks and hazards that are connected to climate change in the different demonstration sites. In taking advantage of the ability of remote sensing to constantly monitor the different regions in Europe, we will be able to provide useful information for local communities to understand how their environment is changing and what kind of measures they will be able to take in order to adapt and mitigate its effects.”

Andrea Marinoni, Associate Professor of Remote Sensing at UiT The Arctic University of Norway and leader of IMPETUS work on Adaptation Pathways and Innovation Packages

ESA Living Planet Symposium 2022: Left – the exhibition area; Right: event graphic

ESA Living Planet Symposium

The European Space Agency (ESA) annual Earth Observation symposiums bring together thousands of scientists, satellite technologists, policy makers and data users. The ESA Living Planet Symposium in Bonn on 23-27 May 2022 was among the world’s largest Earth Observation conferences, with a record-breaking 5000 participants. Throughout the week, they showcased the latest advances in Earth observation and highlighted the essential role of Earth observation for decision making regarding the ongoing climate crisis.

This event was an excellent opportunity to present the IMPETUS project’s goals and activities to a knowledgeable audience and to request that future satellite missions should be planned in ways that safeguard and improve the remote sensing data that are so crucial for climate change research and adaptation.

Further information

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Extreme events

Reports from European Environment Agency indicate that over the past decades, Europe has been experiencing frequent and severe weather and climate-related natural hazards like droughts, forest fires, heatwaves, storms and heavy rain. Climate change will make these events even more intense and more frequent. The summer of 2024 was the hottest on record for Europe and globally. While up to recently the extreme events were not considered usual in Zemgale region, experience from few previous seasons raise precautions. In summer 2024, there were heaviest rains that Latvia has experienced since 1945.

The impact of various extreme weather events has been particularly pronounced in places with high population density, such as the city of Jelgava. The region’s flat topography and land surface elevation relative to sea level result in high groundwater levels, which place additional stress on the city’s drainage and storm water drainage systems.

Issue

In Jelgava, the main challenges from rainfall include high risk of flooding and damage to infrastructure during prolonged rainfall. The Lielupe River and its tributary floodplains, as well as low topography and high-water tables, make drainage and stormwater drainage systems difficult to operate. The extreme rainfall of July 2024 confirms that the existing sewerage system is inadequate to cope with such situations.  In the region’s rural areas, the threats affect both settlements and villages and fertile agricultural land, which plays an important role in the region’s economy.

Storms are the second most pronounced weather extreme in the region and, although on average winds are not expected to change significantly over the 21st century, by the end of the century (relative to the period 1971-2000) there will be a greater number of both windless days and stormy days per year.  In recent years, the Zemgale region has been severely affected by thunderstorms and storms that have brought heavy rainfall in the form of both rain and hail, destroying agricultural crops and damaging infrastructure in many places. Severe storms in summer and early autumn, when trees and shrubs are still in leaves, have caused severe damage.

Climatologists believe that the current extreme values will become the norm in the future, while extreme weather events will cause even more damage. Climate models also predict an increase in total annual precipitation over the 21st century, with an average annual precipitation in Latvia of 775.7 [±60.0] mm for minor, 806.5 [±72.8] mm for moderate and 814.2 [±79.7] mm for major climate change. Predictions foresee substantial increase in duration of heatwaves from climatic norm of 8 days to 16 [±8] days for minor, 22 [±9] days for moderate and 33 [±12] days for major climate change.

Forecasting extreme weather events is quite complicated task, as these events are characterized by short-term nature, they and spatially limited, and thus short warning times are operational. Measures for adaptation to climate change thus become essential by preparedness for more days with extreme temperatures and for more extreme precipitation events. Decision-makers and local authorities need data and information to make the necessary preparations in advance by adapting to the different scenarios and possible consequences.

Within activities of IMPETUS project, the Adaptation Pathways are elaborated for Zemgale region with particular focus on flooding occurrences from river spring floods and heavy rain events:

  • Adaptation pathways are developed to support in better management of river flood risks and heavy rain floods (flash floods).
  • Aimed to implement a set of measures for reducing the frequency and extent of flooded areas in both rural (agricultural) land and urban settlements.
  • In exchange with the stakeholders, adaptation options are identified, assessed and included in the pathways to increase adaptive capacity in Zemgale region.
  • Structural measures, e.g., upgrading of existing drainage and stormwater drainage systems, and aligning them with nature-based solutions for water retention in rural and urban areas, and cleaning of riverbeds are considered.
  • Non-structural measures for improving flood risk early warning system (EWS), increasing awareness of inhabitants and improving the efficiency of actions of competent authorities in case of floor risks are addressed.
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Flooding

Zemgale is a very flat region, located in a lowland area with a high density of rivers. The Lielupe River is characterized by its slow course, due to Zemgale’s flat topography and the low gradient of the riverbed. The height of the Lielupe floodplain does not exceed 1 m above water level. Downstream of Jelgava, the Lielupe River drops only 5-10 cm/km. The riverbed is much lower than the average level of the Baltic Sea.

Issue

Climate change in the Zemgale region by the end of the 21st century will have a major impact on the hydrological regime.  One of the most significant changes will be increased precipitation: under a moderate climate change scenario, winter precipitation will increase by 24-38%, while under a significant climate change scenario, precipitation is expected to increase by as much as 35-51%. Maximum daily precipitation will increase by about 3-6 mm, in some places by as much as 10-12 mm. On a seasonal basis, the greatest increases in precipitation are expected during the winter and spring seasons, so that the risk of flash flooding increases significantly during the cool season, when evapotranspiration is not intense. Periods of high rainfall will alternate with prolonged droughts, which will have a particular impact on heavy rainfall events, increasing the frequency of flash floods. During heavy rainfall, short, localised flooding can be observed in both larger and smaller towns, as well as in flat rural areas.

One of the activities in Zemgale in the IMPETUS project is the improvement of the Flood Early Warning System using the HEC-RAS 2D model. This model simulates water flow in two dimensions, which is particularly useful for flood modelling and forecasting. The HEC-RAS 2D model uses two-dimensional Diffusion Wave Equations to calculate the water flow. The developed model performs 2D

Key Benefits of Using Such a Hydraulic Model

  1. Accuracy and Detail: The HEC-RAS 2D model provides high accuracy and detail, which is essential for flood risk assessment and management.
  2. Integration: The HEC-RAS 2D model can be integrated with other geographic information systems (GIS), facilitating data processing and visualization.
  3. Early Warning Systems: The model is crucial for the development of early warning systems, as it allows for the prediction of flood spread and impact, thereby helping to timely warn residents and take necessary measures.
  4. This solution automatically reads hydrological forecast data from the forecast system of the Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre.

These model results are crucial for the operation of the Early Warning System, which uses this data to identify potential flood areas and prepare warnings at the property (cadastral unit) level.

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High temperatures

Record-breaking summertime temperatures have been recorded in the Netherlands in recent years. With global temperatures rising, such extreme weather events will occur more often, and for longer periods. Prolonged high temperatures, with warm nights as well as hot days, can cause heat stress* and related health issues, particularly among city populations.

*Heat stress occurs when the human body cannot get rid of excess heat and can impact wellbeing through conditions such as heat stroke, exhaustion, cramps and rashes.

"We want to enable municipality decision makers who are working on spatial developments to identify heat stress 'hot spots' and cool areas, analyse the future effects of climate change, and model the effect of different heat stress-reducing measures. The tool must provide them with an easy starting point to integrate heat stress risks in their projects."

Issue

Despite the cooling effect of the sea in the region of Zeeland, the growing risk of heat stress has become a concern.

Elderly and other vulnerable people are more impacted by the effects of prolonged heat, which can cause headaches, dizziness, insomnia and other health issues – even death. Excess temperatures also affect general comfort and liveability of cities. Water quality can be reduced, both for drinking and swimming, and infrastructure can be affected. Buildings and concrete surfaces trap heat, potentially leading to damage, and release it during the night, keeping temperatures warm.

During heat waves, it is important that everyone has access to a cool and comfortable place. Appropriate spatial planning can help to decrease and deal with heat stress. Environmental factors like water bodies, trees, and shade have a major impact on stress caused by high temperatures. Therefore, planting trees, removing concrete surfaces, creating green roofs and cool spaces can improve our comfort and health. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is developing a digital tool to support regional decision making for city planning to address these needs.

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Flood risk

By 2050, sea-level within this region is predicted to rise by 15-40 cm, with more frequent extreme weather and more (severe) storms triggered by climate change. These changes will exacerbate the natural risk of flooding in the IMPETUS ‘Atlantic’ region, because it is surrounded by rivers and the sea, and is below sea level.

*Risk takes into account two aspects; the chance that an event will occur and the negative impact of such an event once it occurs. When there is a low chance that an event will occur, but its impacts are huge, the risk is still significant.

“In the Netherlands, an extensive system of dikes protects us against sea and river flooding. We have always put our faith in this defence and focused almost solely on flood prevention. However, pressure on our system will increase with climate change and rising sea levels. To adapt and maintain a safe living environment, we should develop other safety measures, like more robust spatial planning and contingency plans."

Issue

Rotterdam city, is located in Rijnmond – ‘mouth of the Rhine’. The Rhine river flows through this densely populated area and characterises the region. Protections such as sea dikes and storm surge barriers have been constructed to protect the region, but flooding still occurs.

People living in the city are accustomed to seeing smaller floods. The changing climate affects the interplay between rainfall, river levels and sea storms, increasing the flooding risk. Water levels could rise by a few metres, even in populated areas, with potentially massive impacts. 

Mitigation measures such as storm surge barriers reduce the chance that high water reaches the city, but to minimise the impact of floods when they do occur, adaptation strategies are also needed. A city that can adapt to be safe from floods must be carefully designed. How best to design such an adaptive city?

Critical infrastructure, such as hospitals and evacuation routes, must be accessible at all times. Planning how to best protect them, homes and lives is complex. Flood water behaves in a complex way and flood risks show strong spatial variations. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is developing a digital tool to support regional decision making for adaptive city planning. 

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Energy and waste water

To become climate-neutral by 2050, climate mitigation* efforts are crucial in our strategy for how to deal with climate change. Reducing our energy consumption is a significant mitigation step. In the Netherlands, 15% of energy is consumed in the Rijnmond area around the port of Rotterdam, in large part by a major petrochemical industry cluster.

*Climate mitigation encompasses measures such as technologies, processes, or practices that reduce carbon emissions or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.

Issue

The Rotterdam port petrochemical industry cluster is Europe’s largest. It consumes 70% of the Rijnmond region’s energy. A large part of this energy is wasted (64%, 203 petajoules). More than half of that energy is lost with wastewater. In addition, most energy processes within these industries rely on fossil fuels, which has a significant impact on the climate.

Energy use must be minimised and fossil fuels should be replaced by renewable sources if climate change is to be mitigated. Electrification of processes opens up the possibility to use more renewable energy and can greatly impact decarbonisation. Recovering wasted heat would significantly reduce energy consumption and is a first step towards a more circular industry. 

Supporting industries in a transition towards climate-neutrality depends on identifying how best to reduce their carbon footprint without sacrificing production or performance. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is creating a digital tool that supports decision making about pathways towards an effective energy transition for EU industry.

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Eutrophication

Due to its fertile soils, Zemgale region in Latvia is characterised by an intensive agriculture where large-scale farming dominates. Agricultural activities are well developed and focus on the cultivation of crops.

During the last decade, the area of croplands in the region has increased along with application of high amounts of mineral fertilisers. Excessive loading of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) lead to eutrophication of water bodies e.g., causing overgrowing of rivers, and thus putting a pressure on biodiversity and natural habitats.

Issue

Municipal wastewater effluent is another source of eutrophication in the region. Quite often performance of wastewater treatment facilities is not sufficiently effective to ensure complete purification of waste waters causing water pollution with nutrients. As the result the ecological water quality of the rivers in Zemgale region is mostly moderate or bad.

According to water quality monitoring data of 88 waterbodies located within the Lielupe River basin district, there are 53 waterbodies having significant disperse pollution load and 14 water bodies where point source pollution load prevails (Source: LEGMC, 2024).

Climate change related increase of temperature catalyses eutrophication processes in water bodies. Climate models predict continuation of the increase of temperature thus intensifying the symptoms of eutrophication in freshwaters. Therefore, along with reduction of use of fertilisers, improvement of municipal wastewater treatment facilities, application of additional measures to prevent nutrient runoffs from agricultural land and urban environment to water bodies is of pivotal importance.

Together with regional and local stakeholders in Zemgale region, IMPETUS project partners in Latvia are developing Zemgale regional climate change adaptation plan, that will highlight the possibilities and intention of implementation of nature base solutions, e.g., constructed wetlands in Zemgale region to reduce the nutrient leakages/runoffs, reduce eutrophication intensity and improve the quality of surface waters.