Arctic demo site

Troms & Finmark, NO

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Prognosis

260 %

higher losses from disasters such as landslides in the past ten years, compared to the previous 30 years in Norway.

With winter temperatures already 4-5°C higher than the 20th Century average, the rapidity of climate change is already well perceived and adaptation plans are being developed.

Situation

Beyond the Arctic circle, in the northernmost mainland region of Norway, the IMPETUS Arctic demonstration site in Troms and Finnmark County shares its eastern borders with Sweden, Finland and Russia.

Fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, mining, oil and gas and reindeer herding are the largest economic sectors. With fewer than 250,000 residents in more than 70,000 km2 of land, communities and infrastructure are nevertheless at risk from landslides, rockfalls, avalanches and fjord tsunamis triggered by climate-change-driven changes such as warming, intense precipitation, unstable snow cover, glacial retreat and sea level rise.

Climate related issues

Sustinable management of fisheries and aquaculture

Climate change has already had a significant impact on fisheries and aquaculture in Northern Norway.

Natural hazard risks increasing

Increasing temperatures and precipitation are driving an increased frequency of natural hazard events such as landslides and avalanches.

Flooding and water management

Rising sea water temperatures and the increased frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events have led to shifts in fish distribution and growth rates, thereby affecting operational practices in these industries and ecosystems.

Key actions

  • Marine spatial planing for marine protection and sustainable fishery
  • Risk assessment for future avalanche and earth movement changes and development of early warning systems
  • Awareness raising, stakeholder involvement and risk assessment related to sea level rise and flooding risk in inhabited areas.

Contact us

Demonstration site leader

Rune Grand Graversen

rune.graversen[@]tromsfylke.no

Fishery and aquaculture

Andreas H. Hagset

andreas.hagset[@]tromsfylke.no

Keshav Paudel

keshav.p.paudel[@]uit.no

Kari Elida Eriksen

kari.e.eriksen[@]uit.no

Hazard risks

Louise Vick

louise.m.vick[@]uit.no

Christopher D'Amboise

christopher.dambois[@]uit.no

Kai-Uwe Eiselt

kai-uwe.eiselt[@]uit.no

Flooding and Water Management

Torill Nyseth

torill.nyseth[@]uit.no

Andreas H. Hagset

andreas.hagset[@]tromsfylke.no

Mina Benjegård

mina.e.benjegard[@]uit.no

Events

Date

Current Month

News

Resources

Relevant sectors:

Municipality

Coastal zone planning

Public administration

Fishery

Sky tourism industry

National road service

Urban planning

Citizens

Urban developers

Our ambitions

We aim to create a regional Resilience Knowledge Booster with datasets, observing systems and knowledge resources from economic actors, citizens’ groups, research institutions and other stakeholders.

We also aim to provide the stakeholder community with modelling tools
to develop local and regional scenarios of climate change and future impacts.

We will develop a 4-dimensional digital twin of the coastal area, with all available knowledge of the territory and advanced visualisation techniques.

One of our ambitions is to co-create packages of innovative solutions and adaptation pathways using the digital twin and Resilience Knowledge Booster.

In addition, we aim to demonstrate outputs and best practices of the Resilience Knowledge Booster and digital twin to decision-making bodies to reinforce the Troms & Finnmark County planning activities.

We contribute to the adaptation and climate-proofing of Tromsø city’s infrastructural systems and urban water management in conjunction with a municipality project on climate adaptive development along the waterfront to pave the way for continuation of the Resilience Knowledge Booster as a stable initiative of UiT and the county administration, supporting climate change adaptation plans and the long-term resilience of the region, and medium-to-long-term financial planning based on IMPETUS adaptation pathways.

Issues

Region-specific solutions

Early warning system for avalanches, rockslides, or landslides

The risk posed to arctic communities from natural hazards is expected to change as the arctic is projected to become warmer and wetter under climate change.

To combat this mitigation measures in the form of early warning systems, hazard maps and other avoidance measures can be used as a risk reduction strategy. Two gravitational natural hazards that occur in the arctic are slushflows and rock avalanches. A greater understanding of the physical processes taking place during hazard events, and the initiation/timing of events supplies the responsible authorities with vital information to fine-tune the early warnign and forecasting systems. This work could lead to enhanced risk reduction in the form of planning avoidance measures.

Our approach:

  • Increase the understanding of movements in unstable rock slope and how weather and climate may lead to catastropic rock avalanches. Data produced from the monitoring of the high-risk unstable rock slope Gámanjunni-3 in northern Norwawy will be analysed for movements under different weather and temperature changes.
  • Develop a method for hazard mapping of the slushflow hazard. Development of a classification system for wet snow avalanches to slushflows is necessary to describe the diversity of behavior observed.

This work is linked with:

  • NVE‘s monitoring and early warning system for rock slopes, NGU‘s hazard mapping of rock slopes in Norway.

Digital Twin for freshwater and marine management

Evaluation of climate change risks is traditionally carried out via the crossing of results from impact modelling under different climate scenarios, vulnerability, and exposure assessment.

In most planning conditions the risk assessment is generated from the overlapping of different Geographic Information System (GIS) layers; an effective methodology that is not easy for non-technical people to interpret, however, and is difficult to use in stakeholder co-design processes.

 Our approach:

  • Demonstrate the potential of integrating state-of-the-art GIS representation of multiple variables with advanced visualisation techniques to generate a digital twin of the territory, making visualisation of risk areas and possible impacts much more effective and user friendly.
  • Use the digital twin to support the co-design of Marine Spatial Planning decisions for better regulation of fishery, aquaculture, and other marine areas.
  • Use the digital twin to support the co-design of climate-proofing actions to protect coastal cities from sea-level rise and flooding.

Our approach focuses on the co-creation of solutions, actively involving key stakeholders in both the design and validation of the tools. We use open datasets from national spatial data infrastructures, satellite derived variables and Copernicus services.

This work is linked with:

  • Troms&Finnmark County Marine Spatial Planning programme 2021-2024
  • EU Destination Earth Initiative, DestinE
  • Water Framework Directive, Digital Single Market Strategy
  • Netherlands Delta Program
  • Greenathon by the Hellenic Ministry of Environment and Energy

Economic impact assessment of physical climate risk

Socio-Economic tools and risk projections enable the assessment of climate risks and the establishment of projections and metrics regarding future investments.

Our approach:

  • Identify highly vulnerable hot-spots using open datasets for Copernicus services and satellite-derived variables.
  • Transform this knowledge into a specific regional model and include this in the Resilience Knowledge Booster.
  • Use the RKB and regional model to elaborate economic assessment metrics to aid decision making about investments and future mitigation plans.

This work is linked with:

  • European Investment Bank
  • European Central Bank
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Sustainable management of fisheries and aquaculture

Rising sea temperatures, ocean acidification, and rising sea levels, along with more frequent and severe extreme weather events, significantly impact fish productivity, habitats, migration patterns, and reproductive cycles. These changes lead to shifts in the distribution and abundance of fish stocks, affecting the availability of target species for fishing both temporarily and spatially.

"As marine environments are put under stress by increasing temperatures and a higher demand for space in the coastal zone, we hope to see that the integration of the MSP framework leads to better informed decision making and climate adaption in the region."

Issue

Global warming and related climate events influence fish productivity, reproduction, and disease, as well as changes in aquatic habitats and the suitability of sites for sustainable aquaculture. The increase in extreme weather events further compounds these issues, heightening physical and biological risks such as harmful algal blooms. These climate-related challenges necessitate adaptive planning strategies for both the short and long term.

To address this, the Arctic Demo site is developing a GIS-based visualization tool to support the co-design of Marine Spatial Planning decisions for better regulation of fishery, aquaculture, and other marine areas.

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Natural hazard risks increasing

Northern Norway is a unique landscape with mountains jetting up out of the sea and fjords. This is a major challenge for the road network, power transmission lines and other important infrastructure.

The risk of landslides to society in the Arctic is increasing due to event frequency increase from climate change and from urbanisation. We do not fully understand the links between event drivers such as rainfall and mountain slope collapse leading to landslides. This relationship must be investigated further to have reliable and robust early warning systems for the future.

Slushflows and wet snow avalanche occurrence will increase as rainfall in the Arctic increases by up to 40% with climate change. We must be prepared to adapt to these hazard events to ensure a safer society in the mountains, on roads and in settlements.

Issue

Many settlements and roads are built on the flatter terrain located at the bottom of a mountain slope on the coast or in a valley bottom. This leaves much of the infrastructure exposed to gravitational natural hazards such as snow avalanches, shallow landslides and rockfalls.

With a warmer wetting climate in northern Norway it is expected that the magnitude and frequency of gravitational natural hazards will change.

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Flooding and water management

Tromsø city is located on an island in Arctic Norway, with the center being built mostly along the sea side. Tromsø has been a fast growing city for many years and new development has been built into the sea through land reclamation.

Issue

In the city of Tromsø, new developments and infrastructure are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges. Other low-laying areas such as the old town including built heritage and commercial and industrial sites are also affected.

Tromsø is also affected by storm-water due to increased percipitation and temparature leading to snow melting floods in spring. The urban water systems are affected as this challenges their capacity to manage the increased amount of water.

These climate risks are challenging for the adaptation planning both in a short and long term perspective, as they are interdependent and complex, affecting both public and private properties.

The Arctic Demo site is developing a digital twin as a tool to support municipal adaptive planning.

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Flood risk

By 2050, sea-level within this region is predicted to rise by 15-40 cm, with more frequent extreme weather and more (severe) storms triggered by climate change. These changes will exacerbate the natural risk of flooding in the IMPETUS ‘Atlantic’ region, because it is surrounded by rivers and the sea, and is below sea level.

*Risk takes into account two aspects; the chance that an event will occur and the negative impact of such an event once it occurs. When there is a low chance that an event will occur, but its impacts are huge, the risk is still significant.

“In the Netherlands, an extensive system of dikes protects us against sea and river flooding. We have always put our faith in this defence and focused almost solely on flood prevention. However, pressure on our system will increase with climate change and rising sea levels. To adapt and maintain a safe living environment, we should develop other safety measures, like more robust spatial planning and contingency plans."

Issue

Rotterdam city, is located in Rijnmond – ‘mouth of the Rhine’. The Rhine river flows through this densely populated area and characterises the region. Protections such as sea dikes and storm surge barriers have been constructed to protect the region, but flooding still occurs.

People living in the city are accustomed to seeing smaller floods. The changing climate affects the interplay between rainfall, river levels and sea storms, increasing the flooding risk. Water levels could rise by a few metres, even in populated areas, with potentially massive impacts. 

Mitigation measures such as storm surge barriers reduce the chance that high water reaches the city, but to minimise the impact of floods when they do occur, adaptation strategies are also needed. A city that can adapt to be safe from floods must be carefully designed. How best to design such an adaptive city?

Critical infrastructure, such as hospitals and evacuation routes, must be accessible at all times. Planning how to best protect them, homes and lives is complex. Flood water behaves in a complex way and flood risks show strong spatial variations. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is developing a digital tool to support regional decision making for adaptive city planning. 

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Energy and waste water

To become climate-neutral by 2050, climate mitigation* efforts are crucial in our strategy for how to deal with climate change. Reducing our energy consumption is a significant mitigation step. In the Netherlands, 15% of energy is consumed in the Rijnmond area around the port of Rotterdam, in large part by a major petrochemical industry cluster.

*Climate mitigation encompasses measures such as technologies, processes, or practices that reduce carbon emissions or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.

Issue

The Rotterdam port petrochemical industry cluster is Europe’s largest. It consumes 70% of the Rijnmond region’s energy. A large part of this energy is wasted (64%, 203 petajoules). More than half of that energy is lost with wastewater. In addition, most energy processes within these industries rely on fossil fuels, which has a significant impact on the climate.

Energy use must be minimised and fossil fuels should be replaced by renewable sources if climate change is to be mitigated. Electrification of processes opens up the possibility to use more renewable energy and can greatly impact decarbonisation. Recovering wasted heat would significantly reduce energy consumption and is a first step towards a more circular industry. 

Supporting industries in a transition towards climate-neutrality depends on identifying how best to reduce their carbon footprint without sacrificing production or performance. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is creating a digital tool that supports decision making about pathways towards an effective energy transition for EU industry.

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Extreme events

Reports from European Environment Agency indicate that over the past decades, Europe has been experiencing frequent and severe weather and climate-related natural hazards like droughts, forest fires, heatwaves, storms and heavy rain. Climate change will make these events even more intense and more frequent. The summer of 2024 was the hottest on record for Europe and globally. While up to recently the extreme events were not considered usual in Zemgale region, experience from few previous seasons raise precautions. In summer 2024, there were heaviest rains that Latvia has experienced since 1945.

The impact of various extreme weather events has been particularly pronounced in places with high population density, such as the city of Jelgava. The region’s flat topography and land surface elevation relative to sea level result in high groundwater levels, which place additional stress on the city’s drainage and storm water drainage systems.

Issue

In Jelgava, the main challenges from rainfall include high risk of flooding and damage to infrastructure during prolonged rainfall. The Lielupe River and its tributary floodplains, as well as low topography and high-water tables, make drainage and stormwater drainage systems difficult to operate. The extreme rainfall of July 2024 confirms that the existing sewerage system is inadequate to cope with such situations.  In the region’s rural areas, the threats affect both settlements and villages and fertile agricultural land, which plays an important role in the region’s economy.

Storms are the second most pronounced weather extreme in the region and, although on average winds are not expected to change significantly over the 21st century, by the end of the century (relative to the period 1971-2000) there will be a greater number of both windless days and stormy days per year.  In recent years, the Zemgale region has been severely affected by thunderstorms and storms that have brought heavy rainfall in the form of both rain and hail, destroying agricultural crops and damaging infrastructure in many places. Severe storms in summer and early autumn, when trees and shrubs are still in leaves, have caused severe damage.

Climatologists believe that the current extreme values will become the norm in the future, while extreme weather events will cause even more damage. Climate models also predict an increase in total annual precipitation over the 21st century, with an average annual precipitation in Latvia of 775.7 [±60.0] mm for minor, 806.5 [±72.8] mm for moderate and 814.2 [±79.7] mm for major climate change. Predictions foresee substantial increase in duration of heatwaves from climatic norm of 8 days to 16 [±8] days for minor, 22 [±9] days for moderate and 33 [±12] days for major climate change.

Forecasting extreme weather events is quite complicated task, as these events are characterized by short-term nature, they and spatially limited, and thus short warning times are operational. Measures for adaptation to climate change thus become essential by preparedness for more days with extreme temperatures and for more extreme precipitation events. Decision-makers and local authorities need data and information to make the necessary preparations in advance by adapting to the different scenarios and possible consequences.

Within activities of IMPETUS project, the Adaptation Pathways are elaborated for Zemgale region with particular focus on flooding occurrences from river spring floods and heavy rain events:

  • Adaptation pathways are developed to support in better management of river flood risks and heavy rain floods (flash floods).
  • Aimed to implement a set of measures for reducing the frequency and extent of flooded areas in both rural (agricultural) land and urban settlements.
  • In exchange with the stakeholders, adaptation options are identified, assessed and included in the pathways to increase adaptive capacity in Zemgale region.
  • Structural measures, e.g., upgrading of existing drainage and stormwater drainage systems, and aligning them with nature-based solutions for water retention in rural and urban areas, and cleaning of riverbeds are considered.
  • Non-structural measures for improving flood risk early warning system (EWS), increasing awareness of inhabitants and improving the efficiency of actions of competent authorities in case of floor risks are addressed.
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Flooding

Zemgale is a very flat region, located in a lowland area with a high density of rivers. The Lielupe River is characterized by its slow course, due to Zemgale’s flat topography and the low gradient of the riverbed. The height of the Lielupe floodplain does not exceed 1 m above water level. Downstream of Jelgava, the Lielupe River drops only 5-10 cm/km. The riverbed is much lower than the average level of the Baltic Sea.

Issue

Climate change in the Zemgale region by the end of the 21st century will have a major impact on the hydrological regime.  One of the most significant changes will be increased precipitation: under a moderate climate change scenario, winter precipitation will increase by 24-38%, while under a significant climate change scenario, precipitation is expected to increase by as much as 35-51%. Maximum daily precipitation will increase by about 3-6 mm, in some places by as much as 10-12 mm. On a seasonal basis, the greatest increases in precipitation are expected during the winter and spring seasons, so that the risk of flash flooding increases significantly during the cool season, when evapotranspiration is not intense. Periods of high rainfall will alternate with prolonged droughts, which will have a particular impact on heavy rainfall events, increasing the frequency of flash floods. During heavy rainfall, short, localised flooding can be observed in both larger and smaller towns, as well as in flat rural areas.

One of the activities in Zemgale in the IMPETUS project is the improvement of the Flood Early Warning System using the HEC-RAS 2D model. This model simulates water flow in two dimensions, which is particularly useful for flood modelling and forecasting. The HEC-RAS 2D model uses two-dimensional Diffusion Wave Equations to calculate the water flow. The developed model performs 2D

Key Benefits of Using Such a Hydraulic Model

  1. Accuracy and Detail: The HEC-RAS 2D model provides high accuracy and detail, which is essential for flood risk assessment and management.
  2. Integration: The HEC-RAS 2D model can be integrated with other geographic information systems (GIS), facilitating data processing and visualization.
  3. Early Warning Systems: The model is crucial for the development of early warning systems, as it allows for the prediction of flood spread and impact, thereby helping to timely warn residents and take necessary measures.
  4. This solution automatically reads hydrological forecast data from the forecast system of the Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre.

These model results are crucial for the operation of the Early Warning System, which uses this data to identify potential flood areas and prepare warnings at the property (cadastral unit) level.

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High temperatures

Record-breaking summertime temperatures have been recorded in the Netherlands in recent years. With global temperatures rising, such extreme weather events will occur more often, and for longer periods. Prolonged high temperatures, with warm nights as well as hot days, can cause heat stress* and related health issues, particularly among city populations.

*Heat stress occurs when the human body cannot get rid of excess heat and can impact wellbeing through conditions such as heat stroke, exhaustion, cramps and rashes.

"We want to enable municipality decision makers who are working on spatial developments to identify heat stress 'hot spots' and cool areas, analyse the future effects of climate change, and model the effect of different heat stress-reducing measures. The tool must provide them with an easy starting point to integrate heat stress risks in their projects."

Issue

Despite the cooling effect of the sea in the region of Zeeland, the growing risk of heat stress has become a concern.

Elderly and other vulnerable people are more impacted by the effects of prolonged heat, which can cause headaches, dizziness, insomnia and other health issues – even death. Excess temperatures also affect general comfort and liveability of cities. Water quality can be reduced, both for drinking and swimming, and infrastructure can be affected. Buildings and concrete surfaces trap heat, potentially leading to damage, and release it during the night, keeping temperatures warm.

During heat waves, it is important that everyone has access to a cool and comfortable place. Appropriate spatial planning can help to decrease and deal with heat stress. Environmental factors like water bodies, trees, and shade have a major impact on stress caused by high temperatures. Therefore, planting trees, removing concrete surfaces, creating green roofs and cool spaces can improve our comfort and health. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is developing a digital tool to support regional decision making for city planning to address these needs.

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Issue name

Record-breaking summertime temperatures have been recorded in the Netherlands in recent years. With global temperatures rising, such extreme weather events will occur more often, and for longer periods. Prolonged high temperatures, with warm nights as well as hot days, can cause heat stress* and related health issues, particularly among city populations.

*Heat stress occurs when the human body cannot get rid of excess heat and can impact wellbeing through conditions such as heat stroke, exhaustion, cramps and rashes.

"We want to enable municipality decision makers who are working on spatial developments to identify heat stress 'hot spots' and cool areas, analyse the future effects of climate change, and model the effect of different heat stress-reducing measures. The tool must provide them with an easy starting point to integrate heat stress risks in their projects."

Issue

Despite the cooling effect of the sea in the region of Zeeland, the growing risk of heat stress has become a concern.

Elderly and other vulnerable people are more impacted by the effects of prolonged heat, which can cause headaches, dizziness, insomnia and other health issues – even death. Excess temperatures also affect general comfort and liveability of cities. Water quality can be reduced, both for drinking and swimming, and infrastructure can be affected. Buildings and concrete surfaces trap heat, potentially leading to damage, and release it during the night, keeping temperatures warm.

During heat waves, it is important that everyone has access to a cool and comfortable place. Appropriate spatial planning can help to decrease and deal with heat stress. Environmental factors like water bodies, trees, and shade have a major impact on stress caused by high temperatures. Therefore, planting trees, removing concrete surfaces, creating green roofs and cool spaces can improve our comfort and health. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is developing a digital tool to support regional decision making for city planning to address these needs.

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Eutrophication

Due to its fertile soils, Zemgale region in Latvia is characterised by an intensive agriculture where large-scale farming dominates. Agricultural activities are well developed and focus on the cultivation of crops.

During the last decade, the area of croplands in the region has increased along with application of high amounts of mineral fertilisers. Excessive loading of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) lead to eutrophication of water bodies e.g., causing overgrowing of rivers, and thus putting a pressure on biodiversity and natural habitats.

Issue

Municipal wastewater effluent is another source of eutrophication in the region. Quite often performance of wastewater treatment facilities is not sufficiently effective to ensure complete purification of waste waters causing water pollution with nutrients. As the result the ecological water quality of the rivers in Zemgale region is mostly moderate or bad.

According to water quality monitoring data of 88 waterbodies located within the Lielupe River basin district, there are 53 waterbodies having significant disperse pollution load and 14 water bodies where point source pollution load prevails (Source: LEGMC, 2024).

Climate change related increase of temperature catalyses eutrophication processes in water bodies. Climate models predict continuation of the increase of temperature thus intensifying the symptoms of eutrophication in freshwaters. Therefore, along with reduction of use of fertilisers, improvement of municipal wastewater treatment facilities, application of additional measures to prevent nutrient runoffs from agricultural land and urban environment to water bodies is of pivotal importance.

Together with regional and local stakeholders in Zemgale region, IMPETUS project partners in Latvia are developing Zemgale regional climate change adaptation plan, that will highlight the possibilities and intention of implementation of nature base solutions, e.g., constructed wetlands in Zemgale region to reduce the nutrient leakages/runoffs, reduce eutrophication intensity and improve the quality of surface waters.