Heat stress and flood risk adaptation: How the Netherlands is planning ahead

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In the Netherlands, local and regional authorities are taking climate adaptation seriously. However, they often face limitations in funding, coordination, and capacity. That’s where the IMPETUS Atlantic demo site comes in: developing innovative tools and decision-support systems to help translate awareness into informed action.

In this interview, we speak with Jasper van Lieshout, leader of the Atlantic demo site. He shares how his team is supporting municipalities in addressing heat stress and flooding, including in complex environments like the Port of Rotterdam. From high-resolution heat maps to cross-site collaboration, their work not only strengthens local resilience but also feeds into national strategies and offers inspiration for peers across Europe.

According to the European Committee of the Regions, 90% of climate change adaptation measures are undertaken by local and regional authorities. Looking at your own region, do you think the local authorities have the resources to implement these measures? What do you think they are missing?

JvL: “Looking at the Netherlands, it’s true that local and regional authorities carry most of the responsibility for implementing climate adaptation measures. They take this seriously and do their best with the means available. However, their financial and organisational capacity often falls short, especially given the scale and complexity of the challenges. This reflects a broader trend across many European regions.

What’s often missing are clear national guidelines and dedicated funding streams. For adaptation to be effective, local authorities need financial support and strategic direction that enable collaboration across sectors and regions. In practice, coordination between different levels of government and sectors is still difficult. Many measures could be more impactful if better aligned, rather than carried out in isolation, especially since climate impacts often cut across boundaries.

Additionally, some risks, such as global sea level rise, go beyond the capacity of local authorities alone. Even when actions or adaptation measures are only taken locally, large-scale solutions such as flood defenses requires national leadership, long-term investment, and in some cases, and sometimes even cross-border cooperation.”

Have locals, policy-makers or businesses generally become more vocal about changes in their environment due to climate change?

JvL: “Yes, definitely. Awareness of climate change impacts has grown significantly, among policymakers, businesses, but also the non-expert audiences within our demo site. People increasingly experience the effects firsthand, such as heat waves during summers or more frequent flooding. As a result, many are becoming more vocal about the changes they observe in their environment.

However, these concerns are often not supported by understandable quantitative information data, either on the risks themselves or on the effectiveness of adaptation measures. This makes it difficult to turn awareness into concrete, informed action.

That’s where the IMPETUS project plays a key role. By making climate information accessible, clear, and easy to understand, we aim to bridge the gap between experts and non-experts. Our tools and communication efforts support more informed decisions by citizens, businesses, and policy-makers alike. This inclusive approach helps ensure that concerns are not only acknowledged, but also backed by data, and translated into meaningful local climate action.”

You have been developing climate adaptation packages in the project. Is there one measure that has stood out to you, or that you’re most proud of?

JvL: “I’m proud of all the measures we’ve developed. Each technical solution addresses a specific challenge and contributes to climate adaptation in a meaningful way. But if I had to highlight one, it would be our heat awareness system.

It’s a fully operational decision support tool that identifies local heat stress hotspots at a 1-meter resolution. What makes it stand out is its ability to simulate the impact of adaptation measures on the fly within seconds, like planting trees, changing land use, or adjusting urban layouts, directly within the tool. This gives users, including local municipalities, a clear picture of how specific interventions can reduce heat risks.

The system is already in use by several municipalities to guide their new sustainable urban planning. Building on this, we also developed the official national Heat Maps of the Netherlands at 1×1 meter resolution, which are now being used to inform both national and local policy.

Seeing the tool move from research and ideas into real-world application and support tangible decisions on climate resilience is something I’m especially proud of. It shows the value of combining technical innovation with usability and clear communication.”

Throughout the project, you collaborated with partners from the six other demonstration sites. Were you surprised to find any problem (or solution) that was common to another demo site?

JvL: “Yes, I was surprised by how much the demo sites had in common, despite their original differences in hazards and local priorities. One of our main focus areas was heat stress, and we quickly saw parallels with southern sites like Attica, where extreme heat and drought have long been pressing issues. We also found strong links with the Boreal site in Latvia around flood risks. During our visit to the floodplains near Jelgava, we had valuable discussions that revealed how similar their challenges were to ours.

Another interesting connection was with the Arctic site, where Digital Twin technology was used to address climate risks. While the context and objectives were different, the use of advanced modelling showed clear potential across settings. What stood out across all demo sites was the shared challenge of stakeholder engagement. Regardless of geography, getting local actors involved and aligned was a common goal. Exchanging experiences on how to approach this was especially useful.

These insights showed that while each site has its own context, many of the core challenges and solutions are shared. That made cross-site collaboration one of the most valuable aspects of the project.”

What are the next steps for your demo site, and for your research?

JvL: “Our IMPETUS work at the demo site is just the beginning. While our technical solutions, such as the heat awareness system or decision support system for flood management, are already operational and in use by several Dutch municipalities, the next steps have already started. Here we focus on technical improvements and wider dissemination.

Currently, we are applying the developed tools in real-world context to better assess their impact and usability. Engaging a wide range of stakeholders, experts, scientist, and policymakers, helps us evaluate and refine our results so they can meet the practical needs of the end users.

A key priority moving forward is dissemination. We want to ensure the tools and insights developed in our demo site reach beyond the region. That means sharing results through workshops, publications, and partner networks to support other areas in Europe facing similar climate risks, both within and beyond the project.

But dissemination is not just about visibility, it’s also about enabling real uptake. Our goal is to ensure these tools support local policies, inform data-driven decisions, and bridge the gap between research and practical action. This includes working with local authorities, as well as with public partners like museums and education centres, to engage the wider public.

Ultimately, our focus is on making climate knowledge actionable. So that the benefits extend across sectors and regions, contributing to long-term resilience in Europe.”

Your aim to use the decision support tools you developed in Rotterdam port. Were there any unique challenges in developing these tools to be used in a port environment? Is there any advice you can give similar ports on Europe’s Atlantic coast?

JvL: “Yes, applying technical solution for the Rotterdam port presented unique challenges. Ports are complex environments with significant economic activity and many stakeholders. Integrating long-term climate adaptation or decarbonisation strategies into short-term operational planning isn’t always straightforward.

One key challenge was ensuring that measures align with the port’s core priorities: operational continuity, infrastructure reliability, and economic performance. To be taken seriously, strategies must demonstrate clear long-term value, reducing emissions while supporting business competitiveness. Another challenge is the fast-changing nature of ports: companies, land use, and infrastructure can shift rapidly. So, any tool or strategies must be flexible and easy to update.

In general, I would advise ports to start early. Decarbonisation take time, but early investment in planning using data-driven approaches can be cost-effective in the long run. It helps future-proof operations and supports the transition to a competitive, low-carbon future.”

The Atlantic demo site shows how technical innovation, when paired with usability and collaboration, can drive real progress in climate adaptation. Jasper’s team is helping turn complex data into practical decisions by focusing on actionable tools, such as the heat awareness system and decision-support models, and making them accessible to municipalities and planners. Their work also highlights the importance of national coordination, cross-border knowledge exchange, and early action, especially in critical environments like ports. As they continue testing and scaling their solutions, their experience offers valuable lessons for other European regions navigating similar climate risks.

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Extreme events

Reports from European Environment Agency indicate that over the past decades, Europe has been experiencing frequent and severe weather and climate-related natural hazards like droughts, forest fires, heatwaves, storms and heavy rain. Climate change will make these events even more intense and more frequent. The summer of 2024 was the hottest on record for Europe and globally. While up to recently the extreme events were not considered usual in Zemgale region, experience from few previous seasons raise precautions. In summer 2024, there were heaviest rains that Latvia has experienced since 1945.

The impact of various extreme weather events has been particularly pronounced in places with high population density, such as the city of Jelgava. The region’s flat topography and land surface elevation relative to sea level result in high groundwater levels, which place additional stress on the city’s drainage and storm water drainage systems.

Issue

In Jelgava, the main challenges from rainfall include high risk of flooding and damage to infrastructure during prolonged rainfall. The Lielupe River and its tributary floodplains, as well as low topography and high-water tables, make drainage and stormwater drainage systems difficult to operate. The extreme rainfall of July 2024 confirms that the existing sewerage system is inadequate to cope with such situations.  In the region’s rural areas, the threats affect both settlements and villages and fertile agricultural land, which plays an important role in the region’s economy.

Storms are the second most pronounced weather extreme in the region and, although on average winds are not expected to change significantly over the 21st century, by the end of the century (relative to the period 1971-2000) there will be a greater number of both windless days and stormy days per year.  In recent years, the Zemgale region has been severely affected by thunderstorms and storms that have brought heavy rainfall in the form of both rain and hail, destroying agricultural crops and damaging infrastructure in many places. Severe storms in summer and early autumn, when trees and shrubs are still in leaves, have caused severe damage.

Climatologists believe that the current extreme values will become the norm in the future, while extreme weather events will cause even more damage. Climate models also predict an increase in total annual precipitation over the 21st century, with an average annual precipitation in Latvia of 775.7 [±60.0] mm for minor, 806.5 [±72.8] mm for moderate and 814.2 [±79.7] mm for major climate change. Predictions foresee substantial increase in duration of heatwaves from climatic norm of 8 days to 16 [±8] days for minor, 22 [±9] days for moderate and 33 [±12] days for major climate change.

Forecasting extreme weather events is quite complicated task, as these events are characterized by short-term nature, they and spatially limited, and thus short warning times are operational. Measures for adaptation to climate change thus become essential by preparedness for more days with extreme temperatures and for more extreme precipitation events. Decision-makers and local authorities need data and information to make the necessary preparations in advance by adapting to the different scenarios and possible consequences.

Within activities of IMPETUS project, the Adaptation Pathways are elaborated for Zemgale region with particular focus on flooding occurrences from river spring floods and heavy rain events:

  • Adaptation pathways are developed to support in better management of river flood risks and heavy rain floods (flash floods).
  • Aimed to implement a set of measures for reducing the frequency and extent of flooded areas in both rural (agricultural) land and urban settlements.
  • In exchange with the stakeholders, adaptation options are identified, assessed and included in the pathways to increase adaptive capacity in Zemgale region.
  • Structural measures, e.g., upgrading of existing drainage and stormwater drainage systems, and aligning them with nature-based solutions for water retention in rural and urban areas, and cleaning of riverbeds are considered.
  • Non-structural measures for improving flood risk early warning system (EWS), increasing awareness of inhabitants and improving the efficiency of actions of competent authorities in case of floor risks are addressed.
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Flooding

Zemgale is a very flat region, located in a lowland area with a high density of rivers. The Lielupe River is characterized by its slow course, due to Zemgale’s flat topography and the low gradient of the riverbed. The height of the Lielupe floodplain does not exceed 1 m above water level. Downstream of Jelgava, the Lielupe River drops only 5-10 cm/km. The riverbed is much lower than the average level of the Baltic Sea.

Issue

Climate change in the Zemgale region by the end of the 21st century will have a major impact on the hydrological regime.  One of the most significant changes will be increased precipitation: under a moderate climate change scenario, winter precipitation will increase by 24-38%, while under a significant climate change scenario, precipitation is expected to increase by as much as 35-51%. Maximum daily precipitation will increase by about 3-6 mm, in some places by as much as 10-12 mm. On a seasonal basis, the greatest increases in precipitation are expected during the winter and spring seasons, so that the risk of flash flooding increases significantly during the cool season, when evapotranspiration is not intense. Periods of high rainfall will alternate with prolonged droughts, which will have a particular impact on heavy rainfall events, increasing the frequency of flash floods. During heavy rainfall, short, localised flooding can be observed in both larger and smaller towns, as well as in flat rural areas.

One of the activities in Zemgale in the IMPETUS project is the improvement of the Flood Early Warning System using the HEC-RAS 2D model. This model simulates water flow in two dimensions, which is particularly useful for flood modelling and forecasting. The HEC-RAS 2D model uses two-dimensional Diffusion Wave Equations to calculate the water flow. The developed model performs 2D

Key Benefits of Using Such a Hydraulic Model

  1. Accuracy and Detail: The HEC-RAS 2D model provides high accuracy and detail, which is essential for flood risk assessment and management.
  2. Integration: The HEC-RAS 2D model can be integrated with other geographic information systems (GIS), facilitating data processing and visualization.
  3. Early Warning Systems: The model is crucial for the development of early warning systems, as it allows for the prediction of flood spread and impact, thereby helping to timely warn residents and take necessary measures.
  4. This solution automatically reads hydrological forecast data from the forecast system of the Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre.

These model results are crucial for the operation of the Early Warning System, which uses this data to identify potential flood areas and prepare warnings at the property (cadastral unit) level.

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High temperatures

Record-breaking summertime temperatures have been recorded in the Netherlands in recent years. With global temperatures rising, such extreme weather events will occur more often, and for longer periods. Prolonged high temperatures, with warm nights as well as hot days, can cause heat stress* and related health issues, particularly among city populations.

*Heat stress occurs when the human body cannot get rid of excess heat and can impact wellbeing through conditions such as heat stroke, exhaustion, cramps and rashes.

"We want to enable municipality decision makers who are working on spatial developments to identify heat stress 'hot spots' and cool areas, analyse the future effects of climate change, and model the effect of different heat stress-reducing measures. The tool must provide them with an easy starting point to integrate heat stress risks in their projects."

Issue

Despite the cooling effect of the sea in the region of Zeeland, the growing risk of heat stress has become a concern.

Elderly and other vulnerable people are more impacted by the effects of prolonged heat, which can cause headaches, dizziness, insomnia and other health issues – even death. Excess temperatures also affect general comfort and liveability of cities. Water quality can be reduced, both for drinking and swimming, and infrastructure can be affected. Buildings and concrete surfaces trap heat, potentially leading to damage, and release it during the night, keeping temperatures warm.

During heat waves, it is important that everyone has access to a cool and comfortable place. Appropriate spatial planning can help to decrease and deal with heat stress. Environmental factors like water bodies, trees, and shade have a major impact on stress caused by high temperatures. Therefore, planting trees, removing concrete surfaces, creating green roofs and cool spaces can improve our comfort and health. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is developing a digital tool to support regional decision making for city planning to address these needs.

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Flood risk

By 2050, sea-level within this region is predicted to rise by 15-40 cm, with more frequent extreme weather and more (severe) storms triggered by climate change. These changes will exacerbate the natural risk of flooding in the IMPETUS ‘Atlantic’ region, because it is surrounded by rivers and the sea, and is below sea level.

*Risk takes into account two aspects; the chance that an event will occur and the negative impact of such an event once it occurs. When there is a low chance that an event will occur, but its impacts are huge, the risk is still significant.

“In the Netherlands, an extensive system of dikes protects us against sea and river flooding. We have always put our faith in this defence and focused almost solely on flood prevention. However, pressure on our system will increase with climate change and rising sea levels. To adapt and maintain a safe living environment, we should develop other safety measures, like more robust spatial planning and contingency plans."

Issue

Rotterdam city, is located in Rijnmond – ‘mouth of the Rhine’. The Rhine river flows through this densely populated area and characterises the region. Protections such as sea dikes and storm surge barriers have been constructed to protect the region, but flooding still occurs.

People living in the city are accustomed to seeing smaller floods. The changing climate affects the interplay between rainfall, river levels and sea storms, increasing the flooding risk. Water levels could rise by a few metres, even in populated areas, with potentially massive impacts. 

Mitigation measures such as storm surge barriers reduce the chance that high water reaches the city, but to minimise the impact of floods when they do occur, adaptation strategies are also needed. A city that can adapt to be safe from floods must be carefully designed. How best to design such an adaptive city?

Critical infrastructure, such as hospitals and evacuation routes, must be accessible at all times. Planning how to best protect them, homes and lives is complex. Flood water behaves in a complex way and flood risks show strong spatial variations. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is developing a digital tool to support regional decision making for adaptive city planning. 

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Energy and waste water

To become climate-neutral by 2050, climate mitigation* efforts are crucial in our strategy for how to deal with climate change. Reducing our energy consumption is a significant mitigation step. In the Netherlands, 15% of energy is consumed in the Rijnmond area around the port of Rotterdam, in large part by a major petrochemical industry cluster.

*Climate mitigation encompasses measures such as technologies, processes, or practices that reduce carbon emissions or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.

Issue

The Rotterdam port petrochemical industry cluster is Europe’s largest. It consumes 70% of the Rijnmond region’s energy. A large part of this energy is wasted (64%, 203 petajoules). More than half of that energy is lost with wastewater. In addition, most energy processes within these industries rely on fossil fuels, which has a significant impact on the climate.

Energy use must be minimised and fossil fuels should be replaced by renewable sources if climate change is to be mitigated. Electrification of processes opens up the possibility to use more renewable energy and can greatly impact decarbonisation. Recovering wasted heat would significantly reduce energy consumption and is a first step towards a more circular industry. 

Supporting industries in a transition towards climate-neutrality depends on identifying how best to reduce their carbon footprint without sacrificing production or performance. The IMPETUS Atlantic team is creating a digital tool that supports decision making about pathways towards an effective energy transition for EU industry.

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Eutrophication

Due to its fertile soils, Zemgale region in Latvia is characterised by an intensive agriculture where large-scale farming dominates. Agricultural activities are well developed and focus on the cultivation of crops.

During the last decade, the area of croplands in the region has increased along with application of high amounts of mineral fertilisers. Excessive loading of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) lead to eutrophication of water bodies e.g., causing overgrowing of rivers, and thus putting a pressure on biodiversity and natural habitats.

Issue

Municipal wastewater effluent is another source of eutrophication in the region. Quite often performance of wastewater treatment facilities is not sufficiently effective to ensure complete purification of waste waters causing water pollution with nutrients. As the result the ecological water quality of the rivers in Zemgale region is mostly moderate or bad.

According to water quality monitoring data of 88 waterbodies located within the Lielupe River basin district, there are 53 waterbodies having significant disperse pollution load and 14 water bodies where point source pollution load prevails (Source: LEGMC, 2024).

Climate change related increase of temperature catalyses eutrophication processes in water bodies. Climate models predict continuation of the increase of temperature thus intensifying the symptoms of eutrophication in freshwaters. Therefore, along with reduction of use of fertilisers, improvement of municipal wastewater treatment facilities, application of additional measures to prevent nutrient runoffs from agricultural land and urban environment to water bodies is of pivotal importance.

Together with regional and local stakeholders in Zemgale region, IMPETUS project partners in Latvia are developing Zemgale regional climate change adaptation plan, that will highlight the possibilities and intention of implementation of nature base solutions, e.g., constructed wetlands in Zemgale region to reduce the nutrient leakages/runoffs, reduce eutrophication intensity and improve the quality of surface waters.